Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Foreclosure Flip Fails

There are not many properties going into foreclosure in MB these days, but there are some, and there's a story to each one.

How about one that is facing the prospect of foreclosure for the second time in one year?

Almost exactly one year ago, MBC wrote about a few properties in MB that were in default and apparently headed to foreclosure (see "Foreclosures in the News, and in MB" for a strut down memory lane). They included:

  • 601 Larsson, which was for sale at the time for $2.499m; it never made it to auction, but sold short in December 2007 for $1.710m, well below the Sept. 2005 purchase price of $2.0m (see "Close the Books on 601 Larsson");
  • 958 Rosecrans, which had been purchased in July 2006 for $977k; went sour in less than a year, and ultimately sold at auction for $828k in May 2007; and
  • 225 39th St. (pictured), which hadn't changed hands recently, but which apparently had a $1m loan against it go bad, and was headed to auction.
Well, 225 39th is back in the foreclosure news.

It didn't get to auction last year – instead someone overpaid for it: $1.595m, in a private sale closing in June 2007. The buyers fixed up the home nicely and put it up for sale in August at $1.745m, looking to turn a tidy profit (+$150k).

Problem: That was far too high for an unremarkable 3br/3ba, 1600-sq.-footer one door off of Highland in El Porto. (As the area was once known, way back when.) Shortly came the credit crunch, and a slowdown in sales that has hit El Porto especially hard, and this listing hit the rocks.

The sellers allowed the price to come down, and even left it at $1.525m – a price that guaranteed a loss on the investment – for several weeks this year.

But long before then, they must have seen the writing on the wall. They stopped making payments on their $1.2m loan and were in default by December last year. Late last month, the lender decided to move toward a foreclosure sale, and the listing was canceled. (For more, use PropertyShark.com; it allows 6 free property searches a day.)

This must have looked like a deal to the would-be flipper buyers, but they all but sealed their fate when they paid $1.6m, miscalculating the demand for the home at resale. The case is reminiscent of that of 2507 Valley, purchased at auction last October for $1.643m, put up on offer for $150k more at year's end, and sold 2 weeks ago for a loss at $1.5m.

As 39th proceeds down the foreclosure road, the loan in default is $1.2m, and the home is in better condition. It will be some time before there's an auction, but you can almost see the "bargain" bells ringing again for someone else in the future. A word to the wise: Flippers, beware.

-------------------
UPDATE: The story has been updated; the original version erroneously reported that 225 39th had sold at auction last year. Instead, it was "rescued" with an off-market private sale before the trustee's sale.

93 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good write-up, MBW.

Does anyone have any idea how the NOD situation looks in MB as compared to other higher priced neighborhoods in LA? I assume MB didn't get hit as hard by subprime or maybe even Alt-A, but I'd imagine a few folks bit off more than they could chew in the lower priced properties.

Anonymous said...

Great story, MBC. Thanks for doing the research. This is the kind of stuff that keeps me coming back...and back...and back to MBConfidential.

Anonymous said...

This story and the "flippers beware" warning got me thinking. According to various mortgage calculators available on the net, the next buyer at $1.2 million would need to have somewhere between $120,000-$240,000 cash to put down and a gross income over $250,000 per year for the privilege of paying roughly $6,500 per month to live there. Combine that with real possibility that the value of that home may not appreciate much or at all for the foreseeable future and you have an interesting decision for somebody to make.

Brian said...

Here is a map that shows current Notices of Default in Manhattan Beach. Its pretty light activity. I squeezed it into a tiny url because the full URL is loooooonnnnnnng.

http://tinyurl.com/5bud9s

Anonymous said...

"pretty light"

Pretty light? I see zero on your link.

Anonymous said...

9:06

Try this one:

http://propertyshark.com/mason/Maps/?map=la&x=0.45666666666666667&y=0.6883333333333334&zoom=0&basemap=default&poi=poi-la-noticesofdefault(last14days)-·allothercommunities&tab=themes&ll=34.026457823312,-118.368235747761

Anonymous said...

Sorry 9:49. The tinyurl link worked. My point was, I saw zero "pins" in MB or HB.

Anonymous said...

Anyone know what's going on with the new construction on Pacific/35th?

Looks like a nice home but it already has a For Rent sign in front and it's not completed.

MBWatcher said...

Pacific/35th is up on Westside Rentals for $9,800/mo. Kind of astonishing.

Also 1144 Elm, a newbie that started just under $2m and was last at $1.879m, is off the market. I am wondering if it is also rented out; haven't heard back from the person I had as the listing agent.

MBWatcher said...

BTW, Huggy, find a way to email me privately (hotmail or gmail or whatever) or thru a 3rd party. Question for you.

Anonymous said...

225 39th did NOT go to foreclosure last year, according to title records (just checked with the title company which has full chain of title records). Sorry, MBW, but I have a real problem with the accuracy of your info. The previous owner did take out some big loans and was apparently in default (pre-foreclosure) but all that got cured when he sold it to the current owner in June of last year.

The level of foreclosure activity in the South Bay and Manhattan Beach in particular is virtually ZERO. This is markedly different from the early '90s when there were a ton of foreclosures due, in part, to massive aerospace layoffs (ask any realtor who was around then).

Bottom line: Foreclosure activity here is bullish in the sense that there is minimal downward pressure on home prices from distressed properties.

MRMLS even contains a new tab for checking all foreclosure and pre-foreclosure activity in Manhattan Beach. As of this morning, there are 15 properties that are in default (pre-foreclosure), including 225 39th (remember, defaults can be cured - few go to auction) and 5 headed for auction (3412 Pacific, 4104 Highland, 317 Aviation, 1211 Tennyson and 1601 Oak - a sorrier group of properties you would be hard-pressed to assemble).

Everyone, MBC included, needs to improve the level of accuracy of info on this blog if the goal is a more accurate picture of the local RE market. Or the cult can just continue to propagandize and make things up as they are wont to do.

Anonymous said...

Thanks 11:12am. This brings me back to the 742 27th St debate two days ago.

Way to go, MBW. Perhaps you would like to write the next Tupac expose for the LA Times?...

MBWatcher said...

Thanks 11:12 - you filled the gap in information I had; the story's updated to reflect the facts you've provided. (Actually not much had to change.)

FWIW I had to assume that the sale last year was at auction, not a private rescue – the timing added up OK, but the chain wasn't 100% clear from records I could see.

In fact the rescue sale is a far more obvious explanation for the flippers overpaying than if they had picked this up at auction where the start price was going to be $1.1m.

So, regrets on that detail; essence is correct.

The auction at 4104 Highland was supposed to be last week. I don't think 3412 Pacific will make it that far.

Anonymous said...

Good topic for future MBW comment - properties selling for OVER LIST PRICE in this market. That might shake the faith of a few bears, if you don't mind causing the cult some angst (I know I don't).

Most recent example - 1906 Flournoy (was that a Mrs MBC pick?). List = $1,689,000. Sold for $1.7 million. 2317 Pine is another example - hasn't closed yet but will shortly. Also, 742 27th got bid up once the list was set below $2 mil. All of this may be an object lesson in strategic pricing in the current marketplace.

Anonymous said...

So, 11:12. How many people on this thread are spreading foreclosure propaganda as you put it? Don't see anyone saying that there are massive number of foreclosures? So what is your beef? Seems like you may have a penchant for censorship however.

Of course, it is always fun to speculate. Lehman brothers report says to expect a wave of PRIME forelosures starting sometime in the summer as higher quality ARMS reset. Let's wait and see what happens.

Anonymous said...

11:44 MBW was gracious in admitting his mistake, but you don't a problem with the fact the house wasn't foreclosed as reported? Perhaps if you were that individual you might feel differently. There is a difference between "censorship," as you stated and being wrongfully maligned.

Anonymous said...

Actually, 11:44, there have been numerous comments on this blog about massive foreclosures currently, in MB and the South Bay - all false, all pure propaganda. Just don't have the time or energy to go back through previous threads to find them for you but, trust me, they are there as I've had to correct that misinformation in the past.

The depths to which the cult will sink to make themselves feel better about being renters knows no bounds.

Anonymous said...

OK, realtor 11:55. Please search through the blog and find ONE report of MASSIVE foreclosures in Manhattan Beach....there have been some posts discussing increase from the zero levels of yesteryear.

It's pretty clear that you are pushing some kind of agenda against renters and trying to misrepresent peoples positions....if it is anyone spreading propaganda, I'm thinking it is YOU.

Anonymous said...

11:55, I share your view. MBW, how about setting up a blog category, or categories to archive some of the pessimistic views on this cite. Suggested categories are: 1. Armageddon eminent; 2. Armageddon just around corner; 3. Massive Forclosures to hit MB this summer (fall, winter, next year, next decade); 4. Waiting to buy until market bottoms; 5. Opps, missed the bottom, will wait for the next one; 6. Achieving capital appreciation by renting; 7. Case Shiller, and the relevance of Pacoima, South Central and Riverside to Manhattan Beach; 8. Miscellaneous articles of doom; 9. Retractions and corrections (allow extra space for this one).

Anonymous said...

12:00, I'm with you. Thanks for spelling things out so clearly. Most of us can see this, but it helps to have someone state it!

Anonymous said...

11:42 -- what were the original list prices of these places you're talking about? You're only talking about the last list price, I assume?

Anonymous said...

Suggestion: How about creating YOUR OWN blog, Web site, etc.? This way you can post whatever your heart desires...

Anonymous said...

My wife and two young children have decided to leave behind the madness of Westside-LA-private-school applications/tuitions/donations/snobbery and make the jump to MB. As we started our MB housing search a few months back we were advised by a friend to check out your blog. We can't thank her enough for that advice. Your blog is tremendously educational and an amazing resource for us.

I ask you to PLEASE continue what you are doing on a daily basis, no matter what some of the mean-spirited comments may say. I also ask you to PLEASE continue giving your extremely educated opinion and analysis of the MB real estate market. We all may disagree at times with some of your facts and opinions, but the fact is, we should all combine the resources of your site with other sources of info and opinions in order to develop our own opinions of the MB market.

Thank you again for your efforts. We can't wait to join you all in MB......

Anonymous said...

Just move over here and rent. A pretty good number of houses available now. Then you can take your time and look around to decide if MB is the place you want to buy, and exactly where you would do that. Plus you can see what happens with prices.

Anonymous said...

That's right, Anon 2:58, just keep taking your cues on the local RE market from this blog. That way you'll find out about foreclosures that aren't really in foreclosure, lots that are smaller than they really are, homes that are overpriced by avaricious homesellers and their realtors(pretty much every home for sale according to the comments). Best of all, you can join MBC's cult - he's taking applications, now that they shut down the one in Texas. Just be prepared to rent for the next two decades as this site does not espouse buying (see 3:14 or any comment from mookie, anon7, etc ad nauseum).

Anonymous said...

Gee 2:53, I already do. And tell me, what's with the caps?

Anonymous said...

"extremely educated opinion"

Yea, specially when it comes to foreclosures!

Anonymous said...

With all due respect to 2:58, and without trying to sound too "mean spirited", here in MB we have the same "madness of Westside-LA-private-school applications/tuitions/donations/snobbery", with our own Southbay flavor. Also our public school system is pretty good. All in all, It is what you make of it. However, it's still a great place to live and raise kids. Also we are closer to the beach, LAX and downtown. Good luck. It's a good time to be looking to buy.

Anonymous said...

From the Los Angeles Times

HOUSING

Foreclosure glut further depresses housing prices

With homes in or facing foreclosure accounting for more than one-third of sales, activity in Southern California inches up in March while the median price falls.

By Peter Y. Hong

Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

April 16, 2008

The traditional spring home-buying season is off to its worst start in 20 years, data released Tuesday show, with sales so weak that foreclosures now account for more than one-third of all market activity.

Nearly 38% of Southern California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point in the prior year, up from 8% in March 2007, DataQuick Information Systems said.

In Riverside County, more than half of all sales were foreclosures.

That's helping to drive prices even lower, DataQuick said, because foreclosures typically sell at a 15% discount to surrounding properties.

The median price for a Southern California home fell below $400,000, to $385,000. Homes are now typically selling for what they fetched in April 2004, with the median price 20% below the market peak of $505,000 last year.

If there is a silver lining to that cloud, it may be the astonishing rate at which prices are plunging, said UCLA economist Edward E. Leamer. That might get the market to hit bottom sooner, he reasons, so a recovery can begin.

"Lower prices are part of the adjustment that has to be made," he said.

Home sales typically pick up in spring, when the weather gets warmer and parents of school-age children look to buy so that any move can be made over the summer.

This year was no exception: March sales in Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego counties were up 18.8% from February.

But that increase, while welcomed by the real estate industry, pales in comparison to previous seasons. For the last 20 years, March home sales have on average been 38% higher than February sales, DataQuick said.

"We continue to believe a lot of people who could be buying or selling right now are opting to sit tight until they sense we've hit bottom," DataQuick President Marshall Prentice said. "Often what we're left with, especially in inland areas, are sales driven by foreclosure or the threat of it."

Homeowners who aren't facing foreclosure, meanwhile, often cling to outdated notions of what their properties are worth, real estate agents say.

David Emerson, a Lakewood real estate broker, said he was still able to quickly sell houses when owners priced them realistically.

A broker for 25 years, Emerson said much of his work now involved telling sellers what they might not want to hear.

"You go from being like a doctor who delivers babies," in a booming real estate market, he said, "to being an oncologist, just giving people bad news all day long."

Emerson also believes the worst is yet to come. "There are just too many foreclosures coming down the pike," Emerson said.

Natalie Neith, a Beverly Hills real estate agent, has also seen a modest pickup in open-house traffic and sales recently, but like Emerson she sees more foreclosures coming.

Neith credited a recent sale of a house in the West Adams area of Los Angeles to the seller's pricing it below others in the area. The four-bedroom Craftsman house could have been listed for $850,000 a few years ago, Neith said, but the owner priced it at $725,000 and sold it in a month for close to full price.

"When I talk to sellers now, I say you need to reduce your price. You have the prospect of thousands of foreclosures coming. That's going to be your competition," Neith said.

Nationwide, foreclosure-related filings -- including notices of loans in default -- were up 57% in March, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine firm that sells default data. These filings include notices of loans in default, in which borrowers may be able to avoid foreclosure if they strike deals with their lenders.

California foreclosure filings were up 106% in March from a year ago, RealtyTrac reported Tuesday.

Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics, said that so far the housing downturn had defied historical norms by occurring while the overall economy remained healthy. That's about to change, Thornberg said.

"On top of everything else, we're tipping into recession," he said. With unemployment rising and income growth slowing, "we've got the typical drivers [of a real estate slump] again."

Builders of new homes say a spring turnaround does not look likely.

"With the traditional home-buying season now well underway, we have not seen the sales activity we normally would," National Assn. of Homebuilders President Sandy Dunn said in a statement Tuesday.

A monthly NAHB survey found builders rate the condition of the housing market as poor for April.

The builders group uses an index on a 100-point scale to measure their members' sentiment. A score of 50 or above indicates that builders see home sales conditions as positive. The April index number was 20; it had last been higher than 50 in early 2006.

A Chapman University study also released Tuesday forecast further double-digit declines in Southern California home prices. The study by the university's Anderson Center for Economic Research contends that even with the steep price declines so far, area home prices remain higher than income levels justify.

A typical Los Angeles County family would have to spend 48.6% of its annual income on mortgage payments and property taxes to afford a median-priced home, the Chapman study concluded. Historically, the mean expenditure for a home in L.A. County has been 35.7% of income.

For affordability to return to that historic mean, home prices in Los Angeles County would have to fall more than 20% further, said Anderson Center director Esmael Adibi. The affordability gap is a bit less severe in Orange County, where incomes are higher, and the Inland Empire, where home prices have fallen more severely, Adibi said. "In the Inland Empire, we're seeing it get closer to the bottom," Adibi said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes16apr16,1,2298290.story

Anonymous said...

Gee, thanks 5:11. Now if you will also copy the sports section I can cancel my subscription to the LA Times.

Anonymous said...

I would say that MB is still sadly lagging in the price drops. However, I am pretty sure that we will starting competing this year. Even if we cannot get biggest % price drop, I am pretty sure we have a chance in absolute dollar terms, or dollars per square foot.

Come on Manhattan Beach! Let's be number one! Show'em what your option arms are really capable of!

Anonymous said...

Keep wishing 6:02. What, do you need prices to drop back to 1998 levels to afford?

5:11- Where's the info that the Lakers clinched the Western Conference. Maybe you didn't notice the affordability gap comment in OC is less severe. I would expect the same could be said about MB. But thanks for that median Southern California price. Maybe you can buy that $725k craftsman so you can have a short commute to USC to get an education while you're at it.

MBW- maybe you should limit comments so we don't have 3 screens of copy and paste.

Anonymous said...

Ha. I kept getting outbid for crapboxes when I moved here. Decided to rent instead at half the price.

The fun thing is tha thte bidding wars inpired me to investigate what actually WAS going on with mortgages. I invested my former equity according to my views that the sh&*t would hit the fan.

And it turned out that I was right.

The nice thing is that I've been able to rent much more than I was bigging on....and I'm pretty sure that I'll be able to afford what I want when the bottom is here.

Remember, there are quite a few folks on this blog that bought in the last bottom. Don't disparage me because I'll buy at the bottom this time.

At least I pay my bills in cash every month. More than a lot of folks do.....so don't knock me, maybe I'll be your neighbor next year.

Anonymous said...

6:39- You and John Paulson. Happy timing.

Maybe you have look at the data that the good homes are still selling for higher prices. But good luck in timing for that crapbox.

Anonymous said...

6:39 You are a seer and a gifted prognosticator. If only you had applied your remarkable ability to the stock market or, even say, Hollywood Park, which is probably more your speed, you could've afforded any house you wanted. Nonetheless, congratulation and have another Schlitz, because you're clearly to wise to waste your money on those dumb premium beers. If the day should arrive and it turns out that you my neighbor, that'll be the day I move. Thanks for the warning.

Anonymous said...

Not sure what a John Paulson is. Is that the treasury person Paulson?

I've saved enough money by not PURCHASING a crapbox that I am no longer in the crapbox market, thank you very much. I'll leave that to the suckers and patsies that you realtors bring in. I'll have the finest mcmansion that manhattan beach will offer. Although I may settle for a nice rehab with a backyard. I do prefer a nice backyard.

Since you are such an expert 6:26, what block do you think I should move to? I don't want the strand, too private for that.

Anonymous said...

Ah, 6:51, I will except your adulation. It is amazing what you see when you open your eyes. Kind of like that Dr. Suess story. Sorry if I've spelled Dr. Suess wrong. Yes, I took my equity money and put it in the stock market and did quite well. I put hundreds of thousands into shorting the financials. Worked out pretty good. Not too hard to figure out. The biggest question is, how did this nonsense go on so long?

Howeve, I am pretty much a fundamentals guy. I figure I can get 10% this year by sitting on the sidelines while prices drop 20%.

If you suck up a little more, I'll give you some more stock tips.

Anonymous said...

6:39- You made money in the market and you don't know who John Paulson is. The people that make money don't brag about it, so I can only assume....

And what makes you think I'm a realtor? Why does one have to be a realtor when someone like you has this ad hominem blather with your illusions of grandeur of predictions of the real estate market.

Once again, happy timing, hope it works out for you. And since you are no longer in the crapbox market, maybe you could have a nice tract home in the inland empire.

Anonymous said...

Well that's pretty good. I just googled Paulson. I have heard of his hedge fund exploits, but why would I care who he is?

And I am ad hominem attacking? Let's see, what is the daily fare here? "cult of the clueless", "bitter renter"...yada, yada, yada.

This site is nothing but an ad hominem attack against people that opted out of the bubble.

Let's get back on topic. Foreclosure flip fails.

I know of one flip purchased in January and already put on the market and then pulled up and spruced up and back on the market.

Who else has a flip on their block? Anyone with a "for sale" sign on their block that has been sold within one or two years?

Anonymous said...

Let's cut MBW some slack here. He quickly addressed his error and was self-effacing about it. Let's remember that Dan Rather lost his job for making a journalistic mistake. Retractions happen everyday in every major paper. This is a good blog and a lot of fun to read, even when it get a nasty. I have laughed out loud a number of times reading the comments. I don't think his honest mistake caused the crazy that ensued.

Waiting To Buy said...

Ad hominem is being misused about 50% of the time in these comment threads.

Maybe as much as 75% of the time.

I'll start tracking it. I'll post the spreadsheets at the end of each month at LatinConfidential.

Anonymous said...

earlier, i posted this:

"geez. how lame is this blog getting? initial concept was good. too bad."

it got deleted. why delete this? why not delete all these ridiculous back and forths? i guess the truth hurts more than the cause.

MBWatcher said...

9:45 - you missed seeing that comment later? I took out a swath of comments that strayed. Author's privilege.

Anonymous said...

yea, mbw, and 6:46 and 6:51 added a lot.

Anonymous said...

Dear MBW, 6:39 posted the following (has this anything to do with the original flip story post?).

Ha. I kept getting outbid for crapboxes when I moved here. Decided to rent instead at half the price.

The fun thing is tha thte bidding wars inpired me to investigate what actually WAS going on with mortgages. I invested my former equity according to my views that the sh&*t would hit the fan.

And it turned out that I was right.

The nice thing is that I've been able to rent much more than I was bigging on....and I'm pretty sure that I'll be able to afford what I want when the bottom is here.

Anonymous said...

Excuse me 6:39. Would you please conge gate or define "bigging" so we know what you are talking about.

6:55, considering your spelling, grammar and sentence structure, I respectfully suggest the corner of Aviation and Marine as a good place for you to settle, although you might the area a little pricey.

MBWatcher said...

Here's what I will do: Decide myself, arbitrarily – albeit with some aesthetic sense – what should stay.

Here's what I won't do: Listen to commenters tattling on other commenters. And there's no appeals process.

Identify yourself and comment on point and you have a great chance of achieving lasting commenter fame.

Anonymous said...

March Zip code data for LA Times is out today...time to play "hot or not".

For MB:
Manhattan Beach 90266 22 $1,375 -15.1%

Lower sales than February, and I thought volume was supposed to pick up in March?

My money is on "NOT HOT"

Anonymous said...

Let me add the link. It is interesting to peruse.

Just one question. If only two houses sale, which one do the pick for the median value?

Anonymous said...

Whoops. Here is the link

http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/lat-dataquick-sundaychart-april16,0,3771584.htmlstory

Anonymous said...

"Just one question. If only two houses sale, which one do the pick for the median value?"

You pick the same as if 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or an even number sells. It is the avg of the two midpoints.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 7:47 AM,

The Los Angeles Times and Dataquick are wrong! We, here at Duke & Duke realty, say the median price is going up.

Anonymous said...

Anybody have a volume count to date for April? It is half way through the month, would be interesting to see how sales are stacking up.

yourkillingmelarry said...

Interesting take at Lansner on OC Beach property sales.

"Analysis of DataQuick’s March homebuying report shows the county’s beach-close communities are no longer immune from the current housing slump. DataQuick identified 295 homes selling in beach cities’ ZIP codes last month, a 46% drop from a year ago. In these 17 ZIPs, last month’s median price change was off 11.9% vs. a year ago."

http://tinyurl.com/6mjlp3

I am getting a feeling this will get much much worse before it gets better. We are now feeling the effects of the recession. I am not getting a feeling this will be short lived.

Larry said...

I agree with Irwin above me. MB has been destined for a fall for a while, since changes in one part of the housing food-chain eventually trickle to the rest of the chain.

Unfortunately, this downturn could last pretty long so a sudden 'rescue' is unlikely.

Anonymous said...

MB median SFR price is down to $1,375M, a 15.1% drop from an year ago. MB was not suppose to show weakness, was it?

Agree 7:39, not just "Not Hot", but cooling fast, even starting to freeze.

Anonymous said...

Readers, beware. The clueless hordes, like 1:25 above, are once again spreading disinformation about MB RE prices. Here is the correct info for YOY median sale prices of single family homes sold to date this year versus last year in Manhattan Beach as culled from our MLS just 5 minutes ago:

2007 Median Sale Price (Jan 1 - April 17)
$1,749,500

2008 Median Sale Price (Jan 1- April 17)
1,825,000

Next we will hear from the other clueless cultmembers who will tell us that median sale price is a meaningless statistic. See how this works here, folks? Read the comments of propagandists like 1:25 at your peril (or take them to heart and keep renting).

MBWatcher said...

Huggy, it is most definitely NOT "misinformation" to post the March YOY statistics, which were properly attributed in the first reference in the 7:39am comment. (LA Times/Dataquick.)

You could have argued – as you often do – that the larger sample size, in this case YTD, is more reliable than March alone. But you didn't, you said the original number was wrong, along with all the extra histrionics. Check yourself.

Anonymous said...

and please, drop the histrionics-it's getting very old

Anonymous said...

Didn't say the numbers were wrong - just tired of making the obvious point every other day on this blog that the monthly number jumps around because of the small data samples. Next month it could be up 20% - will the clueless hordes then report that figure? We know the answer.

No matter how often the point is made, the clueless hordes will seize on every irrelevant tidbit to bolster their chicken little propaganda.

You, MBC, would have more credibility if you would point that out but I know you don't want to offend your fan base that relies on such negativity, however baseless, for their therapy.

Anonymous said...

Awesome post, 2:18pm. It is so much fun to see newspaper reporters try to make something of something they didn't learn in journalism class! I'll bet you dinner that the reporter, if e-mailed, wouldn't be able to explain sample sizes.

MBWatcher said...

Just to be clear 2:56, the LA Times is publishing a data chart that comes from DataQuick Information Services, a widely respected RE info source. The link to that chart for all cities in LA County is:

http://tinyurl.com/4eayv4

Anonymous said...

I know. Someone had to choose to include that data as it stands, right? Was it truly a "print without wondering if it means anything" situation?

Anonymous said...

Huggy, that chart is not just one line.....it is a whole table of bleeding numbers.

Yeah, Marina Del Rey is up 46% on volume of two. That's bogus.

However, the fact that MB is following the general trend (jet crashing into a mountain). So I would say that means something.

LA zipcode chart was negative 6.7% last month. Let's see what happens next month. Might have a trend on our hands.

Anyone that would like to provide helpful information, here is a question.

It would be interesting to see how mix is changing. If median is down, and $/sq ft is up, it would probably indicate that older cheaper houses are sellling....seem like less new construction is selling, which is typically on the higher side of the median.

Anybody have the y-o-y square footage?

Anonymous said...

Wrong, 3:55. Small data sets mean NOTHING. You have to get larger samples to draw a conclusion. The numbers I posted at 1:51 at least reflect a larger number of sales over several months for our neighborhood - much more relevant that one month's stats for MB or for LA County as a whole.

I am not claiming, btw, that home prices are appreciating across the board in MB (although certain segments are doing fine) but the numbers certainly indicate that the crash, if there is going to be one, hasn't fully arrived yet, except for a few builders of subpar homes who paid too much for their lots in '05. And yes I've seen the price reductions but you always get an excess of those when the market stalls (the sellers are the last ones to accept that prices are not still rapidly appreciating).

Anonymous said...

Huggy.

Yeah, right. Keep talking.

I do, however, agree with your adjective for the market: Stalled.

Anonymous said...

Huggy, 1/13/08: http://tinyurl.com/44yjem

"In fact, all you have to do is look at today's chart in the LA Times that shows LA County's median price/sqft (yes, COTC that's a median statistic, compiled by Dataquick) dropping 8.6% so far while our decline to date is less than 1% (.7% to be exact). And, btw, that's from a peak that was reached in the third quarter of 2006, according to Dataquick's numbers."

Anon 1:51, today (referencing someone who posted the median statistic, compiled by Dataquick):

"The clueless hordes, like 1:25 above, are once again spreading disinformation about MB RE prices."

Sombody's a giant hypocrite.

Anonymous said...

That's pretty good. Huggy is busted.

The best story that the MB realtors have going for them right no is "we're different....so far".

However, it is probably futile to try to prop up the market by providing your own realtor spin on the statistics forever.

Anonymous said...

Are the COTC complete morons? You've made a pretty good case for it with the previous two comments. Let's clarify a few basic points for you two geniuses.

First, I love Dataquick - they have much more complete info than the MLS, just harder to compile. As for the January chart in question (which I don't happen to have), they were talking about an entirely different metric ($/sq.ft.) and an entirely different data set. The point of my comment at that time was the COTC loons (I know, that phrase is redundant) were touting a 50% drop in $/sq.ft in Manhattan Beach real estate. I simply noted the absurdity of that contention and grabbed the closest Dataquick chart available to prove my point.

Sorry, but while I'm glad you've been following my words of wisdom so assiduously (although apparently without comprehension), you're going to have to do better than that.

MBWatcher said...

On this one I'll skip the substance for a moment just to note the sheer art of that response by the comment artist formerly known as Huggy.

Now when are you going to email me privately (under whatever guise)?

Anonymous said...

To the individual last night who was dispensing financial advice and then a big fight broke out, I have an honest question: are California Muni's safe right now? MBW forgive me for being off topic.

Anonymous said...

can someone get huggy's ass out of here

LoveMB said...

71 comments...just on this story alone....

Keep up the discussions MBC!

Whatever one feels, good, bad, COTC, Bears, Bulls, indifferent (I'm sure I've forgotten someone....)

This website is influencing the Hell out of MB real estate.

Yes, I am a happy homeowner here in MB....but I'm sure someone will want to launch a grenade at me.

You have to admit, this website is the talk of the town.

Signed,
MBC's Publicist

Anonymous said...

Are you kidding me? I have a love/hate with Huggy.

He is great fuel. You want to kill him but them he makes a point and then you want to kill and then...

I personally think he is Mike C. and that guy has passion. He is a good guy actually. Looks out for his "people". He will defend his business until the end...that is why they are so good. That is also why he is a pain in the arse.

Good or Bad...that's why you're reading...to see what Huggy spews next.

Anonymous said...

Forgive my ignorance, but what does COTC stand for?

Anonymous said...

COTC = Cult Of The Clueless, the pessimists on this blog who regularly post (with thinly-veiled glee) their predictions of RE armageddon in Manhattan Beach.

MBW, the anonymity thing is a problem that I haven't had time to work on. After one of the COTC tried to seize my IP address and hack my computer (more on that at a later date), I decided to fade back into anonymity until I decide which service offers a good proxy server. I will take suggestions. Suffice it to say, I've gotten a kick out of all the non-Huggy comments attributed to me. The COTC can be really amusing when they're not stooping to new lows.

Anonymous said...

I was not dispensing financial advise. I've been wrong before. Not really fighting either (and I don't think the others were either). Anonymity makes it very easy t