This is the third story of 3 detailing market activity west of Sepulveda in the second half of March. Click to download the complete 3/31/08 spreadsheets, or, any time, use the link in the upper-right corner of the front page.
There were 49 active SFRs in the Tree Section as of March 31, 28 of them priced below $2m and 21 priced above $2m. This continues a trend we first noted 5 weeks ago, when, for the first time in about a year, the inventory below $2m exceeded the number of higher-priced listings. (See "Lines Cross in the Trees.")
There were 5 new listings in the Tree Section in this period. At the lower end, 3 new listings all sport challenging locations:
3601 Pacific is not all the way at Rosecrans, but it's close (4 doors in). That said, it's got some charms; a decent Spanish-inspired remodel of a late-1970s home. Offers 4br/3ba and 2700 sq. ft. at a low PPSF of $512 – start price: $1.395m.
- 2505 Pacific starts below $1m – something we're seeing more of these days. (In MBC's April 5, 2007, update, there was just 1 listing below $1m in the Trees; now there are 4.) The home is a 2br/2ba, 1100 sq. ft. cottage at the corner with Valley. The lot is smaller than the typical Tree Section lot at 3890 sq. ft.
Interesting fact: This home fell in value between its last two purchases – 1988 purchase price: $360k/ 1997 price: $327k. Adjust that $33k drop for inflation, and it's a real wallop. Today's start price: $995k.
- 1400 Oak (no pics) is a fixer that offers 3br/2ba and 1400 sq. ft. and is on a corner lot on the "wrong" side of Oak (backing up onto businesses on Sepulveda). Also, 14th is a cut-through/escape street off Sepulveda. Start price: $975k.
560 36th is surprisingly warm for a concrete-glass-and-steel modern home. It's new construction with 4br/4ba, 4000 sq. ft. and a different flavor – not what you expect in the neighborhood and not the sort of stark, soulless contemporary that you might find elsewhere. (The listing has pics but they don't do it much justice.)
Overall, though, the project is pretty daring for a speckie and for this location – steps from the armory and Sand Dune Park. 36th starts at $2.999m.
- 621 Marine is a newer home (2002) with an even more recent sale (March 2007: $2.436m). The "rustic Spanish" home offers 5br/4ba, 3100 sq. ft., and now is up at $2.489m.
3305 Laurel, once optimistically priced at $3.75m and mostly at $3.65m since last June, took at 10% hit and is now at $3.290m, down $460k total. The listing does not hide this: It screams, "HUGE PRICE REDUCTION." OK, we hear you.
Interestingly, this home was put up for a pricing poll of sorts last year (really a guessing game) on Curbed LA, and, without being told anything, readers there thought the asking price was probably around $2.5m. (See MBC's story: "LA Doesn't Know MB" for more, plus links.)
- 757 30th took another $116k off, and is now down $220k from its start at $2.699m – currently $2.479m. (We can't link to the property because it's been stuck in a "hold" status for a while, for unknown reasons. Well, unknown? It doesn't accumulate DOM.)
- 2309 Pacific, after a bogus re-list in this period, was down $200k from its start, at $2.099m as of March 31. Apparently, that cut worked – it's in escrow as we write. Curiously, its twin (same builder/layout, though reversed) at 2611 Palm still lingers (450+ DOM) at $2.399m – a pretty big gap even with the location difference.
- 2509 Walnut, a home whose earthtone exterior veers strangely toward orange, chopped $100k in this period. It's down $250k from its start last July – now at $2.199m.
- 2509 Palm started at the same price ($2.449m) as 2509 Walnut, but last April. It chopped $100k this round and is down $150k total, now at $2.299m.
Newly sold were 2005 Oak, around for less than 2 weeks at $1.479m (a job transfer); and 1821 Walnut, new construction brazenly priced at $2.750m last May amid a glut, and last at $2.495m – who gets the last word on that? It'll go higher than we thought.
Closed sales, compared to their start prices:
- 2312 Poinsettia: $2.767m (-$227k/-8%)
- 2100 Flournoy: $2.750m (-$450k/-14%)
- 609 26th: $1.950m (-$149k/-7% off this year's price, -$349k/-15% off last year's price)
- 1901 Poinsettia: $1.999m (-$500k/-20%)
- 3613 Oak: $1.030m (-$59k/-5%)
- 626 Rosecrans: $772k (-$27k/-3%)
38 comments:
It is with great sadness that I report the passing of a longtime, successful local realtor. Phyllis Cohen-Edwards passed away this past weekend.
While I consider myself mostly bearish regarding real estate at this time and have not always been appreciative of what realtors do or do not bring to the table, I always liked Phyllis. Ms. Cohen-Edwards was a very postive and energetic person, and always greeted me with a big smile and sincere "How ya doing?". She was a friend of my inlaws and even sold one of our homes a few years back. Negotiating the sales commission with her was...well...let's just say a difficult task. I can only imagine how tough she was with other realtors.
I am going to miss her. Rest in peace.
2507 Valley just closed for $1.5m. Wow, that's a really good deal. This sold new for more than that in '04, I believe. At one point the opportunistic seller tried to sell it in the mid-2's. Later it went to auction, and now a steal.
Some raw numbers I've been tracking for over a year continue to show increasing inventory week over week and big jumps YOY.
realtor.com listings
236 up 59% YOY
ziprealty.com listings
224 up 56% YOY
open homes per TBR
89 up 56% YOY
I believe it's the trends that count and it's obvious which way the numbers are headed.
1:16pm - I am not arguing your logic as to increasing supply, but do you think those sources could be skewed? Did realtor.com have every single listing one year ago on its site? I have no idea, so I am just asking.
1:16,
My numbers are raw, straight off the websites. By the same token, whatever errors (website posting lag, duplicates, etc) there are today, were most likely present last year also. I also realize that realtors have access to more complete information than I do and this fact remains one of their last value-added attributes.
The open homes number intrigues me. I'm told and have seen for myself there are more than a few open homes each weekend that are not listed in TBR. Last year I did not notice any. I still consider nearly half of all homes listed for sale also open on weekends to be curious. It tells me that sellers just might be more motivated than is believed currently.
To sum it up, sure, in a snapshot there could be a large error factor. But plotting these numbers over months at a time is, I believe, very useful in ascertaining trends. And, the trends definitely show a steady building of inventory, fewer and fewer closings with a much tighter credit market that still has a lot of unwinding to do.
The above inventory numbers are incorrect.
Correct numbers - Single family homes available in all of Manhattan Beach
April, 2008 - 151, as of today
April, 2007 - 87
September, 2006 - 174
July, 2006 - 152
June, 2002 - 157
Source: Trendgraphix
During the boom years (mid-2002 to mid-2006), the available inventory of single family homes in MB was always below 90 each month.
While inventory is higher now, it's easy to find other times during the past 8 years (outside of the above-mentioned 4-year span) when the inventory was higher than it is today.
2:15,
I would like to point out, even your source has my focus in their name - TRENDgraphix. It's the trends that matter, ask any quant guy.
The numbers I posted include condos and I readily admit realtors can see behind the curtain and I cannot. Still, I believe my numbers are a useful tool to measure trends YOY.
2:29pm - as a quant guy, what i see is n being too low to identify anything. more data is needed. there are too many factors influencing a simple yoy. i believe 2:15's point is that more obs show that the trend is somewhat flat.
The open house metric doesn't seem useful to me. It could be any number of things. Clearly many realtors are going to be working harder nowadays. Hosting open houses is an obvious way to try to generate business. I don't think it really signifies much wrt how motivated a seller is. Price reductions are a pretty good barometer of that.
For anybody capable of checking, 1461 5th street appears to have a foreclosure notice taped to the door. It has been for sale now for six or eight months.
Anybody know if it is going to foreclosure?
1461 5th Street is in escrow.
Is it common to tape foreclosure notices to houses in escrow? Anyone know what the real story is?
2:29 -
Shouldn't have to point out the obvious which is this - if in the past 8 years, existing SFR inventory was higher than it is today at several points, then how is it that the trend now is toward steadily building inventory and much greater supply when that was not the trend, as we now know, back then? As late as September 2006, the inventory was much higher than today yet no trend was evident then, so why now?
Bottom line - 2:29 is correct, more data is needed to ascertain a definitive trend. Perhaps the most bearish sign is the fact that inventory is rising in the spring, something that hasn't happened since 2002. But 2002 was the calm before a 4-year boom of unprecedented proportions. Not saying that will happen now but you definitely don't have enough to go on if your thesis is our local RE market is in some sort of free fall.
After today's headline jobs numbers, it's nice to know we aren't in a "jobs recession." Ah, think again...
For the mystery Anon who suggested the above, I would encourage you to look at past recessions. Recessions don't start with unemployment, they are an outcome. Every recession has a catalyst and I will concede your point that this one started as a result of RE. I never said otherwise. 01 started with dot com. 91 started with Kuwait/junk bond market imploding. 87 was the market crash, 80-1 was inflation/Chrysler/Carter, 72-74 was end of Vietnam/Watergate. Even the Great Depression had the stock market and banking industry to blame as the catalyst. Unemployment FOLLOWED all of these events. It wasn't beforehand.
Unemployment happens for a reason. Again, there is a catalyst. This time, it was RE, who knows what it will be next time.
Sorry but 2507 Valley was a very poor designed house on a very busy street. Steal? Maybe more like a small hedge on the future... As we know, one mans junk is another's treasure.
Disagree, Agent99. That was a steal precisely because it was not a perfect house and, therefore, was susceptible to a low sale price. Yes, it's on a busy street and the floorplan is not ideal (probably due to the odd shape of the lot) but it had 4 bedrooms, nice finishes and was less than 4 years old.
By contrast, there are FOUR (count 'em, 4) new or newer homes currently in escrow in the Trees for $2.7 million or higher. These are near perfect homes in terms of location, size (even though all are under 3600 sq.ft.) and finishes and, as a result, there is no opportunity to lowball, despite everything you might read from a certain subset of commenters (emphasis on sub) that frequents this blog.
The first explanation of dropping prices seems to be "...somebody got a steal...".
As far as having enough data to draw any absolute conclusions is concerned, there isn't enough known. However, the data that IS known certainly points towards continued market weakness and lower prices as the current trend.
Which 4 "New or Newer above 2.7" are in escrow?
Seems that 2507 Valley will affect comps, no? Wasn't that "Newer" too?
Probably minimal effect on comps because of the location, no real yard space, under 3000 sq.ft. Still a good deal, IMO.
Note the buyers could have bought the completely remodeled home on the corner of 19th and Poinsettia (list is $1,575,000), much better location, but chose 2507 Valley, probably because of the size (over 2800 sf on Valley, just 1500 on Poinsettia) and the excellent seller financing.
3:34: Here is a nice chart (inverted to make unemployment resemble a rallying equity...) showing employment numbers against recessions. Most recent numbers are not in there. You can have an unemployment spike without having a recession, but you can't have the opposite.
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I have to kvetch again about the photos... what utter pablum for a house at that price. For example, 3601 Pacific Ave. The realtorperson (who should be taken into the street, flogged, and strictly forbidden to take even one more photograph of anything, including sleeping kittens) took a picture of a desk. (Last picture in the redfin sequence). A desk, for crying out loud. Okay, maybe I'm new here, but I'm pretty sure, should I buy that house, that desk is not included. Take a picture of the room, for christ-on-a-crutch sake! I am realizing quickly that it is tough for some of you, but at least pretend to be professionals. Get a wide-angle lens, ya' numbskulls, and supplement it with a fisheye as needed. I want to see the room... the space. That's what a house is. The house is not the bedspread and curtains of the existing occupants (most of whom have zero taste).
I want a new house, damnit, but I am not driving down to see any of these properties because for the life of me, I can't tell if the trip is worth it.
wez -- photo of a desk? That's nothing.
The idiot listing realtor for 930 John decided to take an awesome photo of the nice view of the refinery.
Whoever took that photo needs to be fired and run out of town on a rail. Way to sell the $5M house, dumbass.
Anyone know how 790 Rosecrans wound up? We heard that was purchased by the sellers of 3613 Oak, which just closed. The escrow on Rosecrans would presumably be tied to Oak. But Rosecrans canceled midway. Did it sell?
Agent 99
You are just jealous because you lost out on a commission, transparent and tragic...
Some savvy buyer has the gumption to buy a very nice house in a very nice area for almost 20% off asking, sure is a good deal and will most likely be the Tipping Point for other homes in the Trees.....
11:28 wrote: 2507 Valley just closed for $1.5m.
I heard the guy that bought it paid 1.62
Valley went for $1.643m to an investor and they were offering up to 90% seller financing. The last 2+ years on that prop were a strange tale but it appears to end well. Nice deal, by the way, for the buyers.
MBRenter: what do you care? you can't afford it.
MBW, what? selective screening for offensive name calling?
10:35, you don't understand. MBRenter is one of MBC's most avid cult members. All cult members get carte blanche to engage in namecalling, particularly when directed at a realtor.
Where MBW's censorship comes in is when you offend the tender sensibilities of one of his cult members by calling them some highly applicable name like "pathetic loser", "bitter renter" or such. That would be offensive to MBW's cult following and cause for immediate expungement.
No double standard there. Besides, MBW's fan base of pathetic losers is fully behind his new censorship stance.
10:58 - Hi Huggy. Little bitter tonight?
9:20- Wouldn't really consider a house on Valley a tipping point for the trees. Nice try though.
Bottom line is that on average there are 60 posts a night, most likely for a total of 20 people a night, and maybe at best 100 total new people a week. A very limited following for MBW out of a population of 34k for MB alone. Big statistical sample and potential sample for influencing the fall of MB real estate.
I agree, Anon 12:35. I get the distinct impression that a lot of the commenters here are the same people, mostly renters, some even proudly identifying themselves as such, who think that in their own small, pathetic way, they have been empowered by MBC to have an influence on a real estate market that has so far eluded them financially. Good luck, losers!
2507 Valley was a good buy on a marginal home, when you factor in the good (nice newer construction) with the bad (location, no yard to speak of). It's import is nothing more nor less than that.
Not only that, I think I recall 2507 Valley being a hard sell (relatively high DOM) back in '04 when it was new construction.
I live fairly near the Valley house, have been waiting forever for it to sell. Tired of the open houses, random people "peeping" at odd hours, not to mention the break in on Super Bowl Sun. So, was very excited to hear it sold, waiting for nice neighbors... a little worried when I came home the other day, passed by and saw a older SUV with big Harley sticker on back window... 1.5 mil...uh oh!
I bought the home on Valley and don't worry the 2004 Yukon, with my worn well Harley Davidson sticker shouldn't frighten you! The dog and security system should eliminate any further unwanted Super Bowl Sundays. I introduced myself to all the close neighbors. These neighbors didn't mind the mom mobile (one of these folks has a very nice vehicle). And, yes, we are nice!!!!
I bought the home on Valley and don't worry the 2004 Yukon, with my worn well Harley Davidson sticker shouldn't frighten you. The dog and security system should eliminate any further unwanted Super Bowl Sundays or people popping in. I introduced myself to all the close neighbors. These neighbors didn't mind the mom mobile. And, yes, we are nice!!!!
2507 Valley: Welcome to the Neighborhood. It's been a while since I posted on this blog, primarily because MBWatcher had lost control of the blog, i.e. hate and slander reigned supreme over thought and logic. Not sure that it's changed too much, but hopefully the new policy enhances the discussion that takes place.
Regardless, congrats on the new home. What a deal!!! Ranks right up there with the 2807 Elm purchase that closed in December 2007. Truly a steal.
Tree watcher-
Thanks for the post. I am a long time resident of Manhattan Beach. I was born and raised in this beautiful city.
Having attended college out of state and volunteered my time in Gardena and Compton, I can tell you we are truly lucky to live in Manhattan Beach, even with the perceived flaws. I hope to run into a lot of Manhattan Beach bloggers soon in the Tree Section.
MBwatcher is doing the best he or she can, and I still enjoy checking this blog out. My guilty little pleasure.
2507 Valley- Only time will tell if it was a true steal. Until it sells again there is no way to know. That is why I called it a hedge on the future.
Congrats to the new owner, it's nice to see people from here staying and not getting priced out of their own neighborhood.
Do we really know if it sold for 1.5 or 1.643 ??
2507 Valley:
Your response is cracking me up. Heaven forbid, a Harley sticker! Egads. Hurry and replace that with your MBEF sticker and fit in better!
We looked at your home and thought is was great. It didn't work well for our brood but it still was a great home. There will always be something....
See you around school I'm sure!
fellow mom
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