We're seeing the bar being lowered time and again as new homes sell in the Tree Section.
New case in point: 2309 Pacific. This one hit the market last Spring (in May) at a time when a moribund market had hit an unexpected patch of new enthusiasm.
The listing began at what seemed like a lower-end price at the time for new construction: $2.299m. But the buyers that were out were picky, and virtually any excuse was good enough to pass on a home – a Pacific location being an obvious strike.
So 2309 Pacific hung around. And hung. Around.
It was staged, then un-staged. It was re-listed.
As the months passed, the action finally happened only after a recent, seemingly reluctant price chop to $2.099m. But oh, what action.
A buyer swooped in at that point and said something like, "nice enough house, nice new price cut, now take another $200k off now and we're in." And soon a deal was inked.
The home closed for $1.890m last Friday. It's a new (recent) low for new construction in the Tree Section. We're now under $1.9m, when recently seeing new homes sell below $2m was news.
Here are some recent sales (last 6 months) in order of their closings with their drops from initial asking:
- 2310 Palm – $2.200m (-$499k/-18%)
- 2807 Elm – $2.100m (-$799k/-28%)
- 648 35th – $2.075m (-$375k/-15%)
- 3104 Pacific – $1.950m (-$199k/-9%)
- 2709 Oak – $1.950m (-$445k/-19%)
- 1901 Poinsettia – $1.999m (-$500k/-20%)
- 2309 Pacific – $1.890m (-$409k/-18%)
Above, we have selected sales that exemplified the recent trend toward substantially lower sale prices, including cuts below $2m. Sizes ranged from 3200-3600 sq. ft. We'll cover the rest in a moment.
There was some argument when 2807 Elm first sold in December 2007 as to whether it was a bellwether or an anomaly. Now it appears that it was, in fact, the leading edge of a trend toward lower sale prices for new homes. Its $592/PSF price was exceeded only twice in the subsequent 5 sales (from this list), though not by much ($625/PSF being the highest, on 1901 Poinsettia).
In the same span of time, here are the other closed sales of new homes in the Trees:
- 2612 Poinsettia – $2.199m (-$200k/-8%)
- 604 15th – $4.200m (pre-market sale off MLS)
- 613 15th – $4.050m (-$129k/-3%)
- 2100 Flournoy – $2.750m (-$450k/-14%)
- 644 33rd – $2.949m (-$301k/-9%)
2100 Flournoy is the rose in this group of sales, a home only a bit bigger than the standard 3200 sq. ft. Tree Section home at 3600 sq. ft. That home netted the highest PPSF of new homes offered on the open market ($764/PSF). Here's a theory: Quality construction in a nice location will still fare well, even if the builder does have to reduce his ambitions.
2612 Poinsettia is an outlier because, while tax records do show $2.199m ($687/PSF) as the closed price, the property appears to have been purchased partly in exchange for a Torrance property that went to the builder. That complicates an exact valuation.
So where does this discussion leave us?
The leftover twin of 2309 Pacific, 2611 Palm, would appear to be in deep trouble. It began at $2.495m last year, and cut to $2.285m after Pacific went into escrow. Its location is plainly superior to its now-sold twin, but can you really say it's $395k better, as the current price implies?
Two other twins, 2509 Walnut ($2.199m) and 2509 Palm ($2.299m), each offered for more than 250 days, face some price pressure as well. It would not be a surprise, given recent activity, to see one go for close to $2m, or under.
There are several more new homes of comparable size (3200-3400 sq. ft.), many newer to the market, currently priced between $2.3m-$2.7m. As always, there are adjustments to make for location, build quality, etc., but as the bottom moves down, so, too, do the higher-end properties.
92 comments:
Almost every home you listed is the standard 3200 sq ft, build it and they will buy it, unimaginative layout (as you mentioned...sort of). This crap should take a good cut. If I were you, however, I wouldn't gage the market on these dime-a-dozen 32'ers. No personality, no buyers...unless cheap. Why can't these builders use some imagination?
Great article. Thank you
Unfortunately, there's only so much a builder can do on a standard tree section lot.
First of all the garage will DOMINATE.
Then there will be a living room up front, maybe a small guest room and bath. A dining room nearest the kitchen.
(BTW...does anyone still use a living room...or a dining room? Enough to dedicate so much square footage to them?)
Then a great room/kitchen in the back with a very modest sized yard.
Jam 3 or 4 BRs and 3 baths upstairs and you got it.
Finish off with Faux-craftsman or faux-cap cod or faux-whatever.
Either way you have a Manhattan Beach version of an up-scale tract home.
My personal pet peeve...when a builder expecting to get TOP, TOP dollar puts in an above-ground electrical feed. Nice touch in a $2M+ home. Ya know...you can go underground from the nearest power pole!
Also, why anyone would want a basement is beyond me...dark, dank, dangerous. Just another way of adding cost without value.
I've heard it said that if you do it right, a basement can be almost "Hilton-Like" (tongue-in-cheek).
While I agree that they are usually dark, why would you say they are dangerous?
They are a good place for teen-agers to hang out.
On the east coast, basements are very common. Depending on the region, they are usually not listed in the home square footage.
Today on CNN
BUFFETT: YEAH, I THINK WE'RE IN A RECESSION.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/buffett-i-think-were-in-a_n_98989.html
===================
Much more economic issues ahead of us than behind us. Dont look for the quick bounce recovery that many are use to. Look for more downside then the typical 2-5 yr bottom.
the fact that 2612 poinsettia involved an exchange is an interesting data point.
i wasn't living here last cycle, but some old-timers have told me that this was a fairly common practice at the tail end of the last cycle. builders would take back the buyer's house in exchange for the buyers paying something close to list price for the house they were selling. the thought process was that this would delay the downward adjustment in home prices and preserve the comps for a little while longer.
i don't know the full details, but i've been told that some of the more prominent builders in town eventually filed bankruptcy, in part because of this practice. i've also heard that some of them were sued by their bank lenders and equity partners because of this.
does anyone in the local r/e community wish to share details about exactly what happened on the exchange front last cycle?
bondinvestor - just to be clear neither the story nor your comment is suggesting there's anything wrong with this transaction on 2612 Poinsettia... FWIW the builder seems to do a lot of all-cash deals, no lenders or partners.
I would hope that if this sale pops up as a comp, though, that it's readily recognized that the sale price needs an asterisk.
I only found this info because I was looking for it to help answer how that one home fared better than the rest, when it was not really among the best.
Have no fear renters. If you want to enjoy the fruit of New Construction without a downpayment, mortgage, taxes or upkeep now's your chance!
3305 Laurel just came up for rental for a mere $8750 a month (?!)
but wait, there's more, if you would rather a terrible location, and worse construction, plus are dying to pay more for it - you can rent 3413 Pacific for only $9800 a month!
Neither have been lived in! In fact, I don't even think the Devico Pacific home ever went on the market.
Nick
Won't a brand new home's value be lessened after it has been lived in by renters?
Hey 90266, do you think they'll ever get those rental numbers and if not what do you think they'll end up going for?
Thanks.
It has been said that one of the last ploys of desperate developers is to RENT a property to applicants qualified to purchase it. After a year, the house will most likely be offered for sale to the renters, or they can move out....I guess the developers feel they can get more leverage that way and SOMEBODY may purchase it. Plus it stems the negative cashflow.
Regardless, not a good sign. I see many "for rent" signs in my neighborhood these days. Kind of funny, with the bubble popping and less people interested in purchasing, it seems to be actually driving up rental vacancies. I think a lot of the inventory was "hidden' by speculators (flippers). Plus a bunch of older folks seem to be bailing now.
Wow 90266 - assume the source is Westside Rentals?
Laurel is clearly the better bargain. So much for Pacific covering costs.
Does anyone know why 1417 Elm (new construction) has not closed yet? It has been in escrow for months.
For comparison to March, does anyone have numbers for MB closed sales month to date in April? Only a couple of days left.
5:53, that's a good question.
As a renter who has maintained and monitored a long-term Westside Rentals account, aside from being new construction, they are VERY different homes.
The Laurel house is in a good location, great neighborhood and close to Sand Dune Park, it has all the bells and whistles with a nice sized backyard, basement etc... Other than some poor exterior choices and too high an initial price, its a great house.
Saying that, it is still too much to pay $8750 in this renters market.
You can rent on the Strand for less than that. In a much older home, but still - ON THE STRAND!
And even the homes on the Strand are not remaining unrented.
That said, I think $6,500/month is fair for the Laurel home.
The Pacific house just makes me laugh out loud. I watched this house being built over the last 2 years and it kept getting worse and worse. This is one of the busiest corners of the Tree Section, and the house is a mishmosh of different styles but with the cheapest finishes.
I was always curious how much someone would dare sell this home for, but I never got that satisfaction. Instead, Westside Rentals alerted me that I could rent it for almost $10,000 a month!
Great, so I can live in an ugly house in a horrible location, and at the same time pay rent than most people in Manhattan Beach (and the world).
Where's the discount on this house? I guess the builder at least came to his senses that this home would be a hard sell, but who in their right mind would shell out $9800 non-deductible dollars to rent this place?
Maybe the builder thinks the renters really are members the COTC, but so far, its been unrented for 2 months? Go figure.
I'd say Pacific could be rented for $5000 a month.
MBW - would be an interesting pricing poll, eh?
Nick
Sorry all, I meant the Strand homes are not getting renters!
Wow. Is that right? The Strand isn't renting out for the summer?
What about 2312 Poinsettia Sold $2,767,500 3/17/08 with less than 60 days on market? That's a nice big tree section number and worth mentioning.
I heard 1821 Walnut has fallen out of escrow. Any truth to that?
2312 Poinsettia wasn't new, so that's why it's not on the list. Great place, nice pub, no yard.
A couple of commenters have noted that 1821 Walnut appeared to have fallen out. It was canceled while in escrow, so that's a reasonable inference. But that was maybe 2 weeks ago and it's not back on market. So I'm not certain on that one, but open to real information.
There have been 19 big sales so far in April, for a paltry 65% YOY drop in sales activity.
Year-to-date, there have been 65 sales, only down a pittance from 155 this time last year.
BTW, hello Mr Councilmember! Please get rid of the bond issue.
MB Renter, thanks for the input, could you please state the source of your data?
For SFRs west of Sepulveda, I've got 12 sales (new escrows) so far in April, including a new one tonite (2904 Laurel).
Totals in Q1:
Jan: 7
Feb: 19
Mar: 13
More from a guy who knows:
Buffett says recession may be worse than feared
Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:09am EDT
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett, the world's richest person, said on Monday the U.S. economy is in a recession that will be more severe than most people expect.
"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.
Just to correct the Cult of the Clueless' misinformation posted above, there have been 77 single family residences sold in Manhattan Beach so far this year, as reported on the MLS (more if you were to include off-MLS sales). This is a 44% drop from the 138 sales that were reported on the MLS at this time last year.
Median Sale Prices for Jan 1-April 27:
2007 - $1,789,000
2008 - $1,647,000 (-7.9%)
Once a plethora of high-end sales close that are currently in escrow (36 in escrow with 24 priced above the current median), this year's median figure will jump up to 2007's median or higher.
Sorry, COTC, but facts are facts. Try dealing with it instead of resorting to fictitious numbers. There's a slowdown in sales but the market is not even close to crashing.
Another poll question for MBW: How many of the current escrows will fall out?
Wow, a 44% drop in sales volume for the year and a 65% drop in volume for April thus far. Things must be going really well.
What exactly are the fictitious numbers you are referring to?
post the list of 77
Arguing about whether real estate prices in Manhattan Beach are going down or not is a moot point. The only worthwhile discussion at this point is how far down and how fast the decline. The bulls and bears can massage numbers and post any opinions they'd like. It won't change a thing. Listings are climbing, prices are falling, available rentals are climbing, interest rates are moving up as is inflation and the economy is tanking...and I seriously believe this will be good for our economy in the long run. Not even kidding.
hey MBWatcher -
what happened to Great Streets??
Well, I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm using my govt. rebate (or whateveryoucallit) to pay down my $2 million mortgage . . . Wait a minute, my CPA just told me that my income's too high to qualify for the rebate. Oh well, I guess the monthly mortgage payments continue on . . .
Mookie, you mean Great Streets that you wish you could afford?
some of us like to have lots of relatives visit us in the summer but don't have space in our houses -
we like to rent for one week at a time in the summer - rent a space for our relatives
should we have a thread here for weekly rentals to be discussed ?
Good News:
A weekend sewage spill in Playa del Rey has prompted county public health officials to advise swimmers and surfers to stay out of about a mile of coastal waters today.
At least 8,700 gallons of sewage discharged Sunday from a condominium complex in the 5000 block of South Centinela Avenue into Ballona Creek, spurring officials to warn beachgoers away from waters from Dockweiler to Venice, said Rachel Tyreecq, a department spokeswoman.
The warning is in effect until Wednesday at the earliest, or until bacterial levels reach acceptable levels, Tyree said.
"Our first priority is to protect the health and safety of the people who visit the beach and water areas," Jonathan Fielding, director of public health, said in a statement. "Once we determine bacteria levels in the water have returned to normal, we will remove the beach advisory."
I found this article interesting. It seems like just yesterday when all these doom and gloomers were panicking about Auction Rate Notes, etc. Typical over-reaction. Too bad not everyone can channel the laid-back MB attitude to other facets of their lives.
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is persuading investors that the financial markets are working again.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 8.4 percent since the central bank backed the purchase of Bear Stearns Cos. on March 16. Companies sold $45.3 billion of debt last week, the most ever. High-yield bonds are poised for their best month in five years and mortgage securities are outperforming Treasuries for the first time in 2008.
``In the near term, if he's a triage nurse, you have to say he's definitely stabilized the patient,'' said James Swanson, who helps oversee $204 billion as chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management in Boston. ``That's what I'd call it, a triage nurse using radical procedures. But they worked. Whether they'll be proven right in the long run, I don't know.''
By cutting interest rates six times since September, backing the Bear Stearns takeover and pumping $915.5 billion through the financial system, Bernanke provided relief to investors stunned after banks reported $312 billion of losses and writedowns from mortgage-related securities and leveraged loans.
Policy makers meet today and tomorrow to set interest rates. Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show there's an 80 percent chance the Fed will cut its target for overnight lending between banks by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent. Traders have pared their bets from a month ago, when 48 percent expected a half-point cut.
`Breathing Room'
``This rally has given the Fed a little bit of breathing room,'' said Joseph DiCenso, a fixed-income strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``They don't have to be as aggressive in easing because their unconventional tactics worked.''
Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, and Merrill Lynch & Co., the largest broker, together recorded $72.6 billion of losses and writedowns as subprime loans infected credit markets. Last week, the New York-based companies led bond sales with a total of $15.6 billion.
While the collapse of subprime mortgages in July caused the credit market seizure, AAA securities tied to subprime or home- equity debt returned 0.44 percentage point more than Treasuries this month, the best since December, according to Lehman Brothers index data. Mortgage bonds guaranteed by government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or federal agency Ginnie Mae returned 0.75 percentage point more than Treasuries as of yesterday, the most since September 1994.
`Turned the Corner'
``The markets are giving him credit for having turned the corner and bringing stability back,'' Kenneth Hackel, a managing director for fixed-income strategy at Greenwich, Connecticut- based RBS Greenwich Capital Markets, said of Bernanke. The firm is one of 20 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. ``Issuers are able to come to market and investors have some confidence in their willingness to put riskier assets back on their books.''
Bernanke slashed the central bank's target rate for overnight loans between banks by 2 percentage points since January, the fastest reduction in two decades.
The Fed began auctioning as much as $200 billion of Treasuries as loans to primary dealers last month, and backed New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s purchase of Bear Stearns. Policy makers offered loans to securities firms as part of its biggest expansion of credit since the Great Depression.
``It was radical, shocking stuff,'' said MFS's Swanson. ``He's really way out there, preemptive and radical.''
Paralysis
Bernanke was responding to the paralysis caused when AAA subprime-related securities suddenly started behaving like junk bonds as defaults by borrowers with poor credit rose to the highest on record.
As demand for all but the safest government debt evaporated, banks were left with more than $230 billion of loans used to fund leveraged buyouts. Investors fled commercial paper backed by mortgages and credit cards, reducing the amount of the debt outstanding by 36 percent to $767.1 billion since August.
Money markets still show limits of investor confidence. The difference between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and the rate on dollar-denominated loans in London, an indication of credit risk known as the TED spread, expanded to 1.43 percentage points from this year's low of 0.78 percentage point on Feb. 12.
``The reluctance of banks to lend is still ongoing from last summer,'' said Moorad Choudhry, an economics professor at London Metropolitan University, and co-author with Frank J. Fabozzi and Steven V. Mann of ``The Global Money Markets.''
High Yield
Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said April 22 that the credit-market contraction is abating, echoing remarks by Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan, who said April 16 that the credit-market freeze is more than half over. Richard Fuld, CEO of Lehman, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack offered similar assessments.
The S&P 500 is up 5.6 percent this month. Finance company shares rose the most, gaining 14 percent on average. Citigroup advanced 36 percent on the New York Stock Exchange and Merrill Lynch is up 14 percent.
High-yield bond returns may be the best since 2003. Company debt rated CCC or less by S&P returned 6.75 percent since March 14, compared with 5.02 percent for all junk bonds, Merrill Lynch index data show. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and BBB- at S&P.
8:19- Very worthwhile article for this blog. Closed from Dockweiler to Venice so almost made MB. Good attempt. Sorry your beach day at the bonfires was ruined.
Ooops, Huggy retraction. Number of single family home sales in MB YTD is 74, not 77 (median sales figure is correct, however). Gotta speak to my proofreader. For those interested, that makes the YOY sales drop 46%, not 44%.
Fictitious numbers posted above include claims of 65 total sales this year versus 155 at this time last year (both false).
Also, I noticed there have been 27 SFRs sold in MB so far in April (17 west of Sepulveda). These are MLS-reported sales only (more if you scour the tax records for non-MLS sales).
post the list of 74
Case-Schiller numbers out this morning for LA Metro Area (These numbers are NOT the national aggregate index).
Here are the LA Metro Feb 2007 to Feb 2008 numbers:
266.63
264.58
263.36
263.19
262.12
260.84
258.07
254.79
249.50
240.43
233.03
224.41
214.83
http://tinyurl.com/35q2kg
This represents a dramatic and accelerating 19.4% drop in the LA Metro area in just ONE year.
Recall, the Dataquick March data for MB, a 15.1% drop YoY -- consistent with regional and national data.
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx
Correction above noted: 46% drop in sales volume YTD in MB -- also consistent with broader trend.
The price razing tsunami gets ever deeper; and yes, closer.
None of the 9:49's data is more than tangentially related to 90266 - just more propaganda from another Cult Of The Clueless loser (except where he quotes my data, of course).
9:49's dataquick quote of a 15.1% price drop is for one month - again, more misleading disinformation from the COTC (assuming he didn't just make that number up - you have to constantly check on the COTC as they are experts in fabrication).
As noted above, YTD median price drop in Manhattan Beach is less than 8% yoy (single family home sales only) and will quickly recover based on the number of high-end homes currently in escrow.
Sorry to disturb your morning coffee with facts, COTC.
Thank you for your own brand of propaganda, Huggy. That sure does help clear things up.
Now, care to come up with a "spin" on how the plunging volume indicates an increasingly healthy market?
And your own precious california association of realtors is reporting 12% decline.
I'm starting to think that you are cherry-picking your data!
I see 82 sales on the MLS YTD and here is the list:
ML# S Type St# St Name City Area TG# L/S Price Br/Ba YrBlt Sqft LSqft DOM V P SOC Date
S960478 S SFR/D 200 19th MANH 142 732F5 $5,600,000 5/4.50 2008 4,202 2,696 58 Y N 2.500 03/26/08 LH PH
S947137 S SFR/D 853 6th MANH 144 732G6 $4,500,000 6/5.50 2007 4,926 5,720 210 Y N 2.500 01/11/08 LH PH
S955473 S SFR/A 613 15th St MANH 143 732F5 $4,050,000 6/6.50 2007 5,509 6,250 182 Y N 2.500 03/28/08 LH PH
S959834 S SFR/D 129 6th St MANH 142 732F7 $3,625,000 3/2.00 1935 1,500 2,696 56 Y N 2.500 02/20/08 LH PH
S958006 S SFR/D 911 Duncan Av MANH 144 732G7 $3,190,000 5/5.50 2007 3,689 4,960 64 Y N 2.500 02/25/08 LH PH
S08016542 S SFR/A 872 8th Street MANH 144 732G6 $3,000,000 2/1.00 83 Y N .000 02/04/08 LH PH
S960018 S SFR/D 644 33rd St MANH 143 732F4 $2,948,750 5/4.50 2007 4,200 5,040 108 Y 2.500 04/24/08 LH PH
S961209 S SFR/D 2312 Poinsettia MANH 143 732G5 $2,767,500 5/5.50 2006 4,170 4,454 56 2.500 03/20/08 LH PH
S958833 S SFR/D 2100 Flournoy MANH 143 732F5 $2,750,000 4/4.50 2007 3,569 4,996 82 N N 2.500 03/21/08 LH PH
S958337 S SFR/D 1247 6th MANH 147 732H6 $2,540,000 5/4.50 2007 4,354 7,500 30 N N 2.500 01/05/08 LH PH
S957989 S SFR/A 3300 Blanche Rd MANH 143 732F4 $2,360,000 5/4.50 2006 3,377 4,725 38 N N 2.500 01/08/08 LH PH
S946406 S SFR/D 1909 Magnolia MANH 146 732H5 $2,300,000 5/4.50 2007 3,800 7,310 308 Y N 2.500 04/13/08 LH PH
S960798 S SFR/D 644 35th. St MANH 143 732F3 $2,280,000 6/5.50 2008 3,659 5,400 102 2.500 04/28/08 LH PH
S953088 S SFR/A 420 30th St MANH 142 732e4 $2,275,000 4/2.50 1988 3,256 2,700 191 Y N 2.500 03/14/08 LH PH
S961436 S SFR/D 612 30th MANH 143 732F4 $2,270,000 4/5.00 1999 3,454 4,800 2 N N 3.000 02/29/08 LH PH
S958804 S SFR/D 1226 8th St MANH 147 732H6 $2,248,500 5/4.50 2007 4,100 7,450 37 N N 2.500 01/03/08 LH PH
S08018448 S SFR/D 2612 N Poinsettia Av MANH 143 732G5 $2,199,000 4/5.00 2006 3,200 4,452 1 N N 2.500 02/09/08 LH PH
S08028896 S SFR/D 1418 2nd St MANH 147 732H7 $2,149,000 4/4.00 2003 3,600 9,635 5 Y N 2.500 04/25/08 LH PH
S960244 S SFR/D 228 31st St MANH 142 732E4 $2,100,000 3/2.00 1933 1,757 2,696 78 Y N 2.500 04/23/08 LH PH
S959738 S TWNHS/A 309 32nd St MANH 142 000a0 $2,100,000 3/3.50 2007 2,510 3,498 56 Y N 2.500 04/01/08 LH PH
S956290 S SFR/D 742 27th St MANH 143 732F4 $2,075,000 4/3.50 1991 3,548 5,120 146 N N 2.500 04/13/08 LH PH
S953323 S SFR/A 1901 N Poinsettia Av MANH 143 732G5 $1,999,999 5/4.50 2007 3,200 4,640 175 N N 2.500 03/26/08 LH PH
S08016866 S SFR/D 609 26th St MANH 143 732F5 $1,950,000 5/4.00 1994 3,776 5,120 45 Y N 2.500 03/31/08 LH PH
S957199 S SFR/D 2709 Oak Av MANH 143 732g5 $1,950,000 5/4.50 2007 3,600 4,480 92 N N 2.500 03/11/08 LH PH
S960734 S SFR/D 3104 Pacific Av MANH 143 732G4 $1,950,000 5/4.50 2007 3,200 4,480 16 N N 2.500 02/29/08 LH PH
S08031811 S TWNHS/A 319 33rd St MANH 142 732E4 $1,900,000 3/4.00 2008 2,033 2,700 0 Y N 2.500 04/21/08 LH PH
S08042842 S SFR/D 2309 Pacific Av MANH 143 732G5 $1,890,000 5/4.00 2007 3,351 4,800 10 Y N .000 04/25/08 LH PH
S08016909 S SFR/A 2317 Pine Avenue MANH 143 732G5 $1,878,000 4/4.00 2,606 4,480 40 Y N 2.500 04/18/08 LH PH
S957339 S SFR/D 1843 6th St MANH 147 732J6 $1,875,000 5/5.00 1998 4,057 7,500 93 Y N 2.400 02/26/08 LH PH
S961616 S SFR/D 1623 1st St MANH 147 732J7 $1,875,000 5/4.00 2008 3,481 5,000 53 2.500 03/27/08 LH PH
S08019208 S TWNHS/A 425 Marine Avenue MANH 142 732F5 $1,875,000 3/4.00 2008 1,817 2,696 6 Y N 2.500 03/28/08 LH PH
S08022124 S SFR/A 2311 N Poinsettia Av MANH 143 732G5 $1,850,000 5/3.00 1989 3,308 4,480 28 Y N 3.000 02/15/08 LH PH
S950691 S SFR/D 561 35th St MANH 143 732F4 $1,850,000 6/5.00 1990 4,344 5,400 178 N N 2.500 02/10/08 LH PH
S957540 S* SFR/D 328 16th MANH 142 732F6 $1,850,000 3/3.00 1936 1,230 2,696 23 Y N 2.500 02/25/08 LH PH
S954181 S SFR/A 3617 Vista Dr MANH 142 732E4 $1,840,000 4/3.50 2007 2,744 2,173 183 Y N 2.500 03/06/08 LH PH
S953047 S SFR/D 1501 10th MANH 147 732H6 $1,840,000 4/3.50 2001 3,685 5,280 98 Y N 2.500 01/07/08 LH PH
S951332 S SFR/D 1511 1st MANH 147 732H7 $1,825,000 5/4.00 2004 3,540 5,000 143 N N 2.500 01/17/08 LH PH
S08046926 S SFR/A 616 Manhattan Av MANH 142 732F6 $1,825,000 3/3.00 1964 1,908 1,650 0 Y N 2.500 04/03/08 LH PH
S08036683 S SFR/D 1906 Flournoy Rd MANH 143 732F5 $1,700,000 4/2.00 1953 1,780 5,000 14 N N 2.500 04/16/08 LH PH
S08031960 S SFR/D 44 Village Cr MANH 145 732H4 $1,699,000 3/2.00 1984 2,632 5,300 9 Y Y 2.500 04/17/08 LH PH
Z957137 S* SFR/D 1505 10th St MANH 147 732H6 $1,595,000 5/4.50 1993 3,550 6,660 57 Y N 3.000 02/15/08 LH PH
S950738 S SFR/D 2413 Elm Av MANH 143 732G5 $1,575,000 4/2.50 1981 3,353 4,480 150 Y N 2.500 01/31/08 LH PH
S958933 S* SFR/D 3216 Alma MANH 142 732E4 $1,561,000 3/3.00 1960 2,080 3,465 83 N N 2.500 04/15/08 LH PH
S960646 S* SFR/D 224 31st Pl MANH 142 732E4 $1,550,000 3/4.00 1987 2,054 1,350 16 Y N 2.500 02/21/08 LH PH
S08033107 S SFR/D 709 35th Street MANH 143 732F4 $1,550,000 5/4.00 1981 3,398 5,400 16 N N 2.500 04/25/08 LH PH
S961061 S SFR/D 1521 9th MANH 147 732H6 $1,540,000 4/3.50 1955 2,993 7,500 31 N N 2.500 04/28/08 LH PH
S959260 S SFR/D 2507 Valley MANH 143 732F5 $1,500,000 4/3.00 2003 2,824 5,990 95 N N 2.500 04/04/08 LH PH
S954133 S SFR/D 1600 Ruhland MANH 147 732J7 $1,425,000 4/3.00 1958 2,907 8,856 140 2.000 03/04/08 LH PH
S961028 S TWNHS/A 9 Nantucket Pl MANH 145 732H4 $1,385,000 3/2.50 1987 2,042 5,854 56 Y Y 2.500 03/25/08 LH PH
S08019184 S TWNHS/A 23 Nantucket Place MANH 145 732H4 $1,375,000 3/3.00 1987 2,045 7,183 48 N Y 2.500 03/27/08 LH PH
S959375 S TWNHS/D 26 E Malaga Pl MANH 145 732H5 $1,370,000 3/2.50 1983 2,045 4,366 89 Y 2.500 04/05/08 LH PH
S958690 S SFR/D 3012 Palm MANH 143 732G4 $1,360,000 3/2.00 1954 1,807 4,640 85 N N 2.500 04/25/08 LH PH
S08018724 S SFR/D 605 36th St MANH 143 732F4 $1,355,000 4/3.00 1950 2,029 5,400 22 N N 2.500 04/23/08 LH PH
S960393 S SFR/D 18 Village Cr MANH 145 732H4 $1,350,000 3/2.00 1987 2,368 16 N Y 2.500 02/27/08 LH PH
S955729 S SFR/D 2623 Palm MANH 143 732G5 $1,350,000 3/2.00 1963 1,952 4,640 77 N N 2.500 01/16/08 LH PH
S08025053 S SFR/D 523 Marine Av MANH 142 732F5 $1,340,000 3/2.00 1938 1,623 3,180 18 N N 2.500 03/28/08 LH PH
S951793 S SFR/D 637 13th St MANH 143 732F6 $1,335,000 3/2.00 1971 2,014 2,108 109 Y N 2.500 01/09/08 LH PH
S960819 S TWNHS/A 413 20th Pl MANH 142 732f5 $1,300,000 3/3.50 1990 1,802 1,350 47 Y N 2.500 04/09/08 LH PH
S959544 S SFR/D 652 36th MANH 143 732F4 $1,300,000 3/2.00 1954 1,527 5,400 45 N Y 2.500 02/28/08 LH PH
S956582 S SFR/D 1541 11th MANH 147 732j6 $1,300,000 3/2.00 1977 2,332 6,500 37 Y N 2.500 01/04/08 LH PH
S958282 S SFR/A 566 30th MANH 143 732F4 $1,300,000 4/2.00 1953 1,586 4,800 12 N N 2.500 02/21/08 LH PH
S08022995 S SFR/D 3511 Bayview Dr MANH 142 732E4 $1,290,000 2/2.00 1955 1,281 1,747 91 Y N 2.500 03/20/08 LH PH
S08023172 S SFR/A 233 20th St MANH 142 732F5 $1,275,000 3/2.00 1932 1,700 1,620 6 Y N 2.500 04/03/08 LH PH
S961328 S SFR/D 301 20th St MANH 142 732F5 $1,275,000 3/2.00 1952 1,192 1,800 46 Y N 2.500 04/22/08 LH PH
S955833 S SFR/D 232 30th Pl MANH 142 732E4 $1,271,000 3/3.00 1967 1,378 1,350 238 Y N 2.500 03/05/08 LH PH
S959378 S SFR/D 233 20th St MANH 142 732f5 $1,249,000 3/2.00 1932 1,781 1,633 2 N N 2.500 01/15/08 LH PH
S956361 S SFR/D 1431 5th St MANH 147 732H6 $1,240,000 4/3.00 1967 2,000 7,500 187 2.500 04/28/08 LH PH
S952022 S SFR/A 790 Rosecrans Av MANH 143 732F4 $1,235,000 3/3.00 1956 3,250 5,960 214 N Y 2.500 04/28/08 LH PH
S956442 S TWNHS/D 1325 17th St MANH 146 732H5 $1,215,000 5/3.50 1991 3,088 3,500 57 Y N 2.500 01/31/08 LH PH
S955663 S SFR/D 1023 10th St MANH 144 732G6 $1,200,000 3/1.00 1948 1,350 7,500 7 N N 2.500 02/07/08 LH PH
N954563 S SFR/D 725 12th St MANH 143 732F6 $1,187,000 3/2.00 1957 1,320 3,000 104 N N 2.500 01/18/08 LH PH
S960659 S* SFR/D 1236 E 10th MANH 147 732H6 $1,150,000 3/2.00 1952 1,500 7,500 5 Y N 2.500 03/04/08 LH PH
S958021 S SFR/D 1019 11th St St MANH 144 732G6 $1,110,190 3/2.00 1958 1,424 6,250 122 N N 2.500 04/06/08 LH PH
S958385 S SFR/A 1513 Faymont Av MANH 146 732J5 $1,100,000 4/3.00 1950 2,168 5,049 153 N N 2.500 04/28/08 LH PH
S08038462 S SFR/D 1351 19th St MANH 146 732H5 $1,080,000 3/2.00 1949 1,210 7,450 8 Y N 2.500 04/21/08 LH PH
Z08017927 S* SFR/D 2101 Magnolia Av MANH 146 732H5 $1,050,000 3/1.00 1948 996 6,290 34 Y N 2.500 04/14/08 LH PH
S08031602 S SFR/D 1461 5th St MANH 147 732H6 $1,040,000 3/2.00 1957 1,599 5,000 38 N N 2.500 04/10/08 LH PH
S08019769 S SFR/D 3613 Oak Av MANH 143 143G7 $1,030,000 3/2.00 1948 1,403 4,640 14 N N 2.500 03/31/08 LH PH
S960355 S SFR/D 1647 1st MANH 147 732J7 $928,000 3/2.00 1949 1,270 5,000 1 N N 2.500 03/08/08 LH PH
S08045091 S SFR/D 1412 Faymont Av MANH 146 732J5 $825,000 3/1.00 1950 1,091 5,346 1 N N 2.500 03/27/08 LH PH
S08021591 S SFR/A 1401 Manzanita Ln MANH 146 732J5 $799,000 2/1.00 1950 884 5,346 32 N N 2.500 04/15/08 LH PH
S961216 S* SFR/D 626 Rosecrans Av MANH 143 732F4 $772,000 1/1.00 1947 608 3,625 32 N N 2.500 03/14/08 LH PH
Now there's a cut-and-paste job I doubt anyone will complain about. Thanks.
10:18- way to go. Good job. Love it.
Huggy, you lose the argument if you can only resort to name calling.
Propaganda was YOUR word. Funny how you don't like it when you hear it back.
Prices down. Volumes down. As previous poster said, the argument is no longer whether prices or not prices will drop, but rather how far they will go to normalize.
Huggy...does it suck to be you??
Your words: "..the sales volume figure, ytd, is only 40% behind last year. "
Oh, ONLY 40%. Ha!
MBWatcher...why isn't Huggy being censored given your new sanitized version of the blog? Favortism perhaps?
I'd just as soon he not be (I'm the anon that he referred to as a "loser").
Let's keep a civil tongue.....For those that do not, it will make it easier to see the weakness of your argument.
Funny, Huggy used to try to be witty even when personally attacking. Wonder if his new testiness comes from the negative y-o-y numbers?
One more realtor property coming up for sale:
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/rfs/660931596.html
Looks pretty nice. Don't know the guy, is he moving up, or is he joining the rank of bubbleheads and waiting for the bottom?
I, for one, am glad to have Huggy and the other sales people around. Their comments provide a nice contrast to reality. Plus, by the mere fact that they are posting here and in such non-civil way, it displays the gravity of the situation from their prospective. Why the heck else would they bother to address those they hold in such obvious disregard? Not to mention, their posts almost always validate the long standing lack of respect they command in the business world.
I for one love all the bears on this site and think it might be time to buy. No one can call the bottom and I plan on staying in this house 7-10 years. The builder inventory is getting lower and once that is gone it will just be resale’s. The one thing I have noticed when looking in MB is the number of low quality spec homes. Some are really bad and almost need to be gutted. Those are the same homes that this blog seems to use to show that the market is tanking. Those that can afford a nice home don’t like this type of construction/design. That is why a Flournoy (even with that horrible house above) was so tempting. Someone got a great house.
My question - I am comparing the 661 26TH STREET MB to the 2 newer Hermosa Beach houses on 21st St. 540 21st HB is one of them.
Which neighborhood / street would you recommend and why? Thanks for your input.
Anon 1:22, my guess is that you rep one of those houses. Not a very convincing speech.
By the way, over here in East Manhattan Beach, spec houses will never sell out. Never. Because we've got Rich V.R.
I for one see a big difference between the low quality spec homes and the high quality stuff that matt morris (and some other high quality guys) put out
there is a big difference between the developer putting $250 a square foot in cost in and matt putting $400 a square foot in cost in - you can see it and you can hear it when you tap the doors.
when you are paying as much for land as we do in MB you might as well get some decent quality
4/29/08 1:31 PM
Thanks for the insight. I used to live on 15th street in Manhattan and moved to Malibu 13 years ago. I thought I offered a legitimate question for a real estate blog.
Looking to move closer to one of my companies in Orange County. But again thanks for your commentary. It was very helpful. At least I know you will not be one of my neighbors.
The Dataquick chart with March 2008 LA numbers is here:
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx
I stand by the assertion:
"Recall, the Dataquick March data for MB, a 15.1% drop YoY -- consistent with regional and national data."
These mounting data-sets speaks for themselves. As expected, we are now at the beginning of the slide locally. Expect this downslope pattern to accelerate over the next year+.
As stated before:
"All the factors which lead to price declines are already in place: a drastic change in the credit climate, a rapid and increasing move towards historically normative and perhaps even more strict underwriting; ticking ARMs/pay options, a recession (of uncertain duration and depth) and now rising local inventory coupled with decreasing sales volume.
For sure, MB is not Palmdale (was there ever real doubt about that? Or is there a need to append a map?); but the tsunami waves which are razing housing prices originating in Palmdale are wafting ever closer."
These real estate tsunami waves originating in Palmdale, Pacioma, Pomona and Pasadena are having global repercussions and effecting Rekjavik, Dublin, London, Madrid, New Delhi, Singapore and Hong Kong, Tokyo...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/business/worldbusiness/14real.html
Housing Woes in U.S. Spread Around Globe
By MARK LANDLER
DUBLIN — The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India...
-----------
In this context, the only non-troglodyte question worth asking is: How much MB will be effected? The question of whether MB will be affected is self-evident nonsense!
3:46 -- I hope dominating garages become deadly enough to sales that architects stop doing that. Gads, I hate that view from the curb.
8:30 -- some
perspective on that market rally of bernanke's. The market's had 12 (twelve) rallies greater than 5% since the fed started cutting rates.
1:04 -- Thanks for the chuckle, made it worth stopping by this afternoon for post-lunch tea-time.
Why do the sales people bother to post the ridiculous, thinly veiled sales blather comparing "builders" and etc? Do they really think anyone reading this blog buys into the stuff they post?
1:40, you come across like a Spanish Troglodyte. What's your secret?
Matt Morris spending $400 per foot? Please. His stuff is good, but nowhere near that good.
As for the question on 26th in the Trees and 21st in the HB valley, it's the same builder.
Who is better (or higher priced) besides MB's creme de la creme of builders (i.e. Matt Morris, Tomaro, Sexton, Schaarr)???
You guys do know that inland empire tract homes cost 50$/square foot to build?
400$/square foot is 800% more expensive.
Maybe not very useful for calculations, but kind of interesting. Lumber costs have dropped by 50%. That 50$/square foot may be out of date by now.
Out there, they could drop the price all the way to 200-K or so before they hit bottom.
Golly, I take a lunch break and thinks get nasty. Did you all get out at all today? It's lovely, the way to be.
Yes, I stripped out some nasty comments after returning. One was Huggy's. They're right, you know, when you're witty, you can be funny, but all this "loser" and "bitter renter" stuff is tired and it demeans you, not the people you're debating.
Take it down a notch, folks.
And by the way, comments _about_ the comment policy will be automatically deleted. I saw that on another blog the other day and decided I like it.
1:40- Pass over MB. You can probably see why by this blog. A bunch of rich snooty people and bitter renters hoping for a crash. I too lived in Hermosa for years (92-94, 98-2001) and MB from (94-98, 2001-2005). It has changed since you lived here. Still a great place, but I would recommend Hermosa. Our neighbors were the best. In MB, the neighbors were a pain in the a--. Although, my friend's have great neighbors, it just depends. There will always be that, oh you live in Hermosa mentality compared to MB. People in MB don't like the fact that Hermosa kids can go to Mira Costa since they don't live in MB. These are just some comments. Take em for what they are worth. I like both areas you are looking, so check it out and see what you like best. Isn't funny how you got called out being an agent? These people on this site are ridiculous.