Saturday, April 5, 2008

Street Smarts

In our whimsical poll late last month, we tried to determine which MB street might be the least-well-known in town. (See "Where's Homer, Again?" and "Meet Francisco.")

The results told us that Francisco St. is the city's most obscure street. Now we offer the full results of that poll.

It turns out that the rough trigger for the poll, Homer, is pretty well-known, with 60% of readers saying they knew Homer. (Remember, we asked you to vote for all the streets you knew.)

Among the 4 "view" streets, Bayview performed best with 70% awareness. This makes sense, given that the street (kind of an alley) passes through the downtown core, and plenty of homes have a Bayview address.

But essentially the same number (69%) claimed familiarity with Grandview, which is a surprise. Very few homes sport a Grandview address. It runs along the top of the plateau above Ladera School and Sand Dune Park, and there's a separate little street down closer to Marine.

Meanwhile, Seaview, an El Norte ("North Manhattan Beach") alley street between 42nd and 43rd, was pretty obscure at 33%.

Our poll showed that just 23% of MBC readers were familiar with Francisco. That meant that the narrow loser of the "most obscure" street competition was Fisher Ave., with 25%.

Let's give Fisher its 15 minutes now.

Fisher is twice as long as Francisco: almost two full, small blocks. (Not that this helped its recognition.)

You might see bits of some of the homes along Fisher from the front doors of Shade, since it's just up the hill, across Valley/Ardmore, on the north side of MBB. It runs from MBB north to 13th.

Hmmm... MBB, Valley/Ardmore, Metlox, downtown – it must be a pretty busy, noisy street, right? Nope. On our visits, Fisher has proved remarkably well insulated against MBB noise. You're more likely to hear the ocean than the cars. (And we know the difference.) It's a very surprising quirk.

The big news on Fisher these days is all the massive redevelopment. A formerly sleepy street with smaller homes is being transformed into the Land of the Titans. The home at 13th/Fisher (leftmost in this pic) was first, several years ago, then came its neighbor, and now there are 4 new construction projects underway on this short stretch, all pushing the maximum height and square footage.

In the old aerial pictures of MB, you can spot some of the original homes on Fisher, planted like experimental crops in the corners of giant fields. Soon the satellites will show a near-continuous wall of urban beach homes.

Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it's a big change.

41 comments:

MBRaven said...

Neat story

Anonymous said...

how about strand # 2???

Anonymous said...

90266 said...
I've followed the comments on this blog since early last summer and the Bulls keep changing their story.

First, Manhattan Beach was immune to the housing downturn, then West of Sepulveda was immune.

Now it seems the Tree section and Hill section have lost their strength.

Next it was the Sand section West of Highland, then the Walkstreets West of Highland, and most recently the Walkstreets that are West of Highland and South of the Pier.

What's next?

4/2/08 10:16 AM




__________
\answer - i have been following the walk streets south of the pier and west of highland and the prices are still hitting peaks - i have seen no fall in prices there

especially the streets within a few blocks south of the pier

sorry this is truly a desirable area

Anonymous said...

In reality, it's the bears who keep changing their story when confronted with facts like flat prices, rather than their hoped-for market crash, those darn median sale price figures, which remain stubbornly high for Manhattan Beach, and the months of inventory (3-4 months), which shows a local market that is more neutral than bearish. First they tell us the market here is already in free fall; then, when confronted with the facts, they either deny their existence or say nonsensical things like we're on the Titanic's stern and will eventually be going under.

Really shouldn't go by anything 90266 says - he's another MBC cult idiot.

Anonymous said...

Dear: 90266 and, in all reality "Nick," you really and truly are a sad and pathetic person. Last weekend, you bragged about selling your house "before the market crashed" and drinking wine while looking at the ocean in your rental. You even had the temerity to say "keep my house nice for me when it's repossessed." All right, "Nick" we'll keep your house nice for you. We just bought a new Viking refrigerator -- cash -- and I promise you we'll keep the box nice dry for you when you're sleeping in it by the side of the road.

mookie said...

5:41 - I have commented in the past about the absurdity of using median prices as a benchmark for how MB RE is doing. Here is a quick question for you, and others, who believe the stat is worth more than a cup of coffee... -

When median prices go lower, will you then change your tune and finally agree that prices in MB are headed lower?

I for one will not. I've stated before that the stat is worthless so when median prices go lower you won't read from me that it means anything. However, since you put so much stock into it I would think that would completely change your opinion.

Since you brought up inventory as well, when it grows to 5 or 6 or 7+ months, will you say that things are bearish, as opposed to your current stance of neutral. Again, I for one don't think the way you use homes in escrow as a valid way of looking at inventory, so you won't hear from me that it means much.

I want to get this question on the table now so when things get to the levels I expect that I don't hear from you and your cronies that there is some anamoly or excuse in the MB market.

Anonymous said...

Anyone who is so blind as to brag about buying a refrigerator is a sad, sad waste of a human being. I feel sorry for you.

90266 said...

We just bought a new Viking refrigerator -- cash -- and I promise you we'll keep the box nice dry for you when you're sleeping in it by the side of the road.

Did you have to do pay with cash because you maxed out all your credit cards?

Don't feel too badly, that's been happening alot during this current housing recession.

Good choice on the Viking, Subzeros are too hard to open, and the Viking will keep your cash safe if the economy tanks.

Have a great night!

-Nick

Anonymous said...

Fact of the matter is look at the low percentages for people knowing these streets. If you don't know these streets, then how can these people know the local RE market.

You can all be entitled to your opinion about the future of MB real estate, but there has been no crash as of yet.

Mookie, keep hoping. You probably had no idea where these streets were until these stories. Oh, that's right, you wouldn't venture off the walk streets in hopes of picking up a house there for $1M.

Still haven't seen any true stats that prices have crashed from the bears. A few houses that have sold lower than 2-3 years ago, but plenty that have sold higher as well.

And I'm not a realtor, bull or bear, or even a MB homeowner anymore. Seems like anyone who says the market isn't falling or really going anywhere at this point is a realtor, homeowner, or bear.

Fact is when people start saying it is a good time to buy it will be too late. I bought in '96 and everyone was saying it was a terrible time to buy. So I expect history to repeat itself and have flat prices for the next 3 years, and some correction, but not near the 40-50% all the bears are hoping for on this website. Remember, less than 1/3 of them knew of Fisher and Francisco.

Anonymous said...

Let's see. According to mookie, sale prices are not an indicator of market strength or weakness and neither is supply. What are you using to determine the overall health of our local market - tea leaves? Or are you reading the bumps on your head (talk about the cranial version of War & Peace).

Please, please pleae don't tell me you're relying on your new best friend, Anon7's NYTimes cut-and-paste articles to tell you about the MB RE market.

For what it's worth, I believe there are plenty of opportunities presently if you are a buyer. So maybe I'm neutral with a bear bias. The point was simply that the market here has not crashed and with inventory levels where they were just 18 months ago, there is no good sign that a crash is imminent in MB. That hardly makes me a bull.

Anonymous said...

Nick:

"alot"? Come on. You are the 17 year-old that someone brought up yesterday in a post, right?

"current housing recession"? The same poster yesterday said you "regurgitate" words (as he said it). Uh, housing corrects or crashes. The economy is in a recession (still a debate, as the economic indicators need to come in). Give it a rest. Perfect proof that this site can require a login with nothing gained.

90266 said...

I was hoping for a better comeback.

mookie said...

8:03 - I have never stated the market will crash, nor have I said it already has. There is a clear difference between correction and crash. I've been very clear throughout my posts that MB will hold up better and get back on track sooner.

Now, if you could only answer my question. When median prices turn negative, will you then agree that prices are going lower? By the way, do you the difference between median and mean? Again, you are sticking by your comment that median stats rising indicates a market where prices are rising. So if that is the case, when median prices move lower you would obviously have to take the other side, correct? Pretty simple question.

And 7:53 - Can you please, please, please explain to me what the correlation is between knowing the strets on MBW's poll and prices going lower? And why if I did know where all those streets are it would sway my opinion of MB RE in one direction or another.

Anonymous said...

909er, aka 90266NICK, "what's next?" For you I suggest . . . an intervention or some type of professional help. Maybe the optomitrist (AH7) can help. Sand is strong, last sale a tear down for $3.6 mill, new spec house at 128 9th. Stop stressing. If you don't already own and can afford it, I'd be a serious looker. Most inventory in 4 years. It won't last.

Anonymous said...

Mookie said: Again, you are sticking by your comment that median stats rising indicates a market where prices are rising.

Uh, no. I simply said that a rising median price clearly contradicts those in your cult who regularly come on this blog and, without evidence of any sort, state that our local real estate market is in free fall - reread 5:41. I personally do not believe prices are rising at this time, despite the rising median sale price stat to the contrary, although I've yet to hear a reasonable explanation as to why that is happening. My view- prices overall in MB are flat from 2005 to the present (which means, by the time you subtract transaction costs, you'd be negative). Some homes have gone down in value, others have stayed the same, others still (the premium properties) have been seeing healthy appreciation.

I said I was neutral on the market with a bearish bias. If the median price starts to head lower, I imagine that will be combined with an indicator like much higher inventory and, yes, my bias would be increasingly bearish in that circumstance.

Anonymous said...

And 7:53 - Can you please, please, please explain to me what the correlation is between knowing the strets on MBW's poll and prices going lower?

Again, Mookie, who said prices are lower. It just points out that people on this blog don't even know the area yet are commenting on the status of MB RE. Just like you. You seem to know the market in all of 6 months. Good for you, if you are that smart.

By the way, do you the difference between median and mean?

I KNOW the difference between Mean and Median, learned that maybe in the 4th grade. I know it as well as you know 20 people or so that are looking for jobs after the Bear debacle.

Once you bring true data I will listen. Until then, you are just one of many that do not even know the area, but pretend to.

Anonymous said...

Well, in hindsight the laws in california made it 100 % rational for people to stretch to the maximum and buy a house they knew they could not afford

IT is not well known or understood by the general public, but california laws are such that if you default on your mortgage and walk away from your house, the bank can't come after your other assets.


Think about this rationally -

it is 2003 - you buy a $1 million dollar house with 5% down. You think there is a 50% chance of the house value getting cut in half and 50% chance of it doubling.

if it gets cut in half, you tell the bank to take it back and you walk away with a loss of your 5% downpayment or $50,000 bucks

if it doubles in price, you pull out your $1 million in equity with a HELOC. Then if it starts to fall in value, you mail the keys back to the bank.

Even if you put the $1 million in to T bills, and the bank knows you still have it, they can't get at it

Think carefully - the people that sucked out all their cash with a heloc and are now defaulting are the rational ones.

people who decided not to buy a house were certainly ethical and moral. But perhaps not really financially prudent.

Anonymous said...

>Uh, no. I simply said that a rising median price clearly contradicts those in your cult who regularly come on this blog and, without evidence of any sort, state that our local real estate market is in free fall - reread 5:41.

I've stated before my casual observation that building activity appears to be down. This has been supported however by public statements by those in the know (mayor, realtors) that this is indeed true. Isn't this evidence enough that the housing market has turned? It also could mean in the short term at least that median home prices stay the same or even rise because of the constrained supply.

That said I would be very interested in getting actual statistics related to current building activiy. Anybody?

mookie's papa said...

Mookie,

All over the country, bears are screaming about 12-14 months of inventory and falling prices that are based soley on median data. The same exact data calculated precisely the same way here in the South Bay tells the opposite story; things are fine. They aren't great, and it isn't (currently) crashing. Barring someone creating a more accurate measure, we must rely on what we have, median and supply. Both indicate the same right now. If they were presenting conflicting market conditions, I would understand your reluctance to buy in, but they're not! They couldn't be more consistent in fact!

So, while not a bull necessarily, I will answer your question...if we see evidence of a falling median from ONE FULL YEAR COMPARED TO THE NEXT (not just one month YOY) AND inventory goes up beyond 7 months, I will agree that the market is going lower.

For those still praying for that crash, it will take a a lot more to get there.

Anonymous said...

slowing building activity will only shrink inventory and stablize the uncertian segment of the market. That's not a bad thing at all!

Anonymous said...

Less construction activity in MB will likely have zero effect on the rising inventory numbers. Most construction in MB is re-contruction, not vacant land where a completely new house is being built.

Facts are, inventory is rising and sales are slowing.

wez said...

On the theme of median and mean, that reminds me of another of my pet peeves about data representation, especially when bimodality is likely. Whenever people can't agree over the basics of the data, I suspect there really two datasets tossed together confusing the heck out of everything. In other words, I suspect there are two markets here, each doing their own thing.

O Blogmaster, is it possible to get the last sales price data plots as scatter plots with all each sales data point included (since it actually isn't that much data)? Box and whisker plots would be interesting too...

MBWatcher said...

wez, what time period or market are you looking for?

wez said...

At least a year's worth to see the full annual trends in it. (two years, would be even better... I'm a plot w*ore, so more data the better.) If it's bimodal, a scatter plot will show it pretty clearly. The two distributions may overlap too much to sort them out ... but at least you can throw median and mean out as illegitimate numbers and try to come up with some other equitable representation of the data.

I have a suspicion that there are sub-sectors (based on location and house type) that are following an ongoing 2-4% trend upward and other sub-sectors that are responding to broader market forces.

These are all just unfinished thoughts. I'm used to using my hands and the mouse to investigate these things and talking about them feels awkward.

Anonymous said...

Off topic, and someone may have discussed this already, but why is 528 6th Street in the Sand coming up as only 2 DOM? This place has been for sale for a LONG time. What gives?

Anonymous said...

Wez
you are 100% correct when you say the following

I have a suspicion that there are sub-sectors (based on location and house type) that are following an ongoing 2-4% trend upward

Wez, take a look at the walk streets south of pier and west of highland - others have mentioned this but it bears amplification - these houses are on an upward trend - you can see prices today march 08 in excess of march 07

NO other markets in MB have the same behaviour

Anonymous said...

Off-topic, but there is an article in the Daily Breeze today about properties near the refinery in Torrance.

http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_8836822

I do NOT want to re-ignite the argument about proximity to the Chevron refinery affecting MB prop values, but I do find this article to be of interest.

MBWatcher said...

528 6th pulled a bogus re-list last week. Yet they still haven't fixed the square footage in the listing, which overstates true living space by about 800 sq. ft. They might've earned a mulligan if they had fixed that.

See "Buyer, You'd Better Verify" here:

http://tinyurl.com/4jb8wm

wez said...

11:52 Hm, so if one came up with some good theories about price, split the historical data into two on those factors and looked to see if the resulting distributions were normal (if there is enough data left)...could work. Then ongoing the data could be split that way. Course, it may create a more voracious Star-belly Sneech problem than there already is and, frankly, people are arguing because they want to argue... so perhaps none of it is worth the trouble. Eh, but the scatter plot might stoke some interesting conversation rather than more flames.

Anonymous said...

11:52, I believe the Strand, virtually anywhere in Manhattan Beach, will exhibit similar upward price appreciation as south Sand walk streets. Also, north Sand walkstreets in the 200 block or closer have done very well.

ET said...

there is something wrong with that MBC

old_SF_hippies said...

If you ask me though, I would argue a South end walk street home west of highland is more desirable than an El Porto strand lot. This is because of the proximity to downtown MB/shops/boutiques/etc.

Which brings me to my next question.
My husband and I want to move to San Francisco to MB after visiting. The strand and the south end walk streets are the areas we have been looking at. We would have to sell our condo in SF as well as our villa in Hawaii to pay for this though (cash). Our places can sell quickly because our work will buy them if we transfer to LA region.

Our price range is tops 5 mil.
We can get 3.3 for the SF condo.
And probably 2.7 for the HI house.

The remainder can defray moving costs and living expenses for a good time.

But where do we want to live (North end strand) or south end walk streets. Ocean view is a must for these prices either way.

Thanks everyone for your help!!!
Hope to see you soon-

looking for a B house said...

Anon 12:00,
Thank you for the article regarding the soil contamination from the Torrance Exxon refinery. We once considered purchasing a home near the Chevron refinery in MB, (35th or 33th street), however, we decided against it because of the noise level. Based on this article, I believe there is much more to consider.

Given the slower real estate market, there has been a number of contingent sales: 644 35th, 644 33rd, 1407 3rd, 1256 8th, 1146 5th. I'm curious as to how many of these contingencies are based on the buyer having to sell their home. Does anyone have any insight into these sales? It will be interesting how many of these homes might fall out of escrow or perhaps be renegotiated because the buyer could not obtain what they had hoped for on the sale of their property.

Papa Hotel said...

12:00 PM

I've been wondering about possible soil contamination issues for a while. Does anyone know what problems we have in MB, who keeps track, and where that information is stored?

JustMe said...

Soils contamination due to the refinery? Well, I am sure that you will find plenty of petroleum products in the local soil - it is called asphalt paving and almost all of the streets are surfaced with it.

wez said...

There are two archived superfund sites in MB, but you may have to request more info from them to get the details.

The ToxMap is another good source of info from more databases than just superfund.

Our house had an EnviroCheck(tm) report in the property profile that went into a lot of detail about nearby environment issues. I always assumed that was the law, but I don't know. Not that double checking isn't a bad idea...

Anonymous said...

South end walk streets are superior to North end strand

I personally like to be no more than a four block walk to the restaurants downtown, but some other people are ok with a longer walk

in any event, don't look north of the pier

Anonymous said...

8:57 AM 4/7/2008

FYI. You can find building permit data for Manhattan Beach at the website below. However, I do not believe it is accurate because it suggests there were no multi-family units built.

http://socds.huduser.or

It looks as if there were 170 to 200 housing permits issued per year from 1996 to 2006 in 90266. In 2007 there was a dropoff to 146 permits.

MBWatcher said...

Hey 12:32, thanks for that HUD link. I had to poke around to see what they're measuring – residential new construction, privately owned. For '06 and '07 there's no data on MFRs but it's there for prior years.

Assuming these numbers are credible and valid when compared against each other (for trend purposes), '07 was the lowest of the 2000s, and a bit lower than '03 with 146 compared to 156 then; the lowest in the dataset (10 yrs) was 1997 with 110.

Intriguing, thanks.

ET said...

looking for a b house...

the refinery produces nearly no noise at all. I live on 36th.... North end is great b/c your close to good surf in porto, sand dune, grandview, and rosecrans which is good for quick 405 access.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, it's great living next to a oil refinery. The only noise is a not very often loud blast of air (or some kind of noxious gas) every once in awhile, train horns and the engines that pull them and the shotgun range in use on weekends.

Besides that if you don't mind living adjacent to, according to Stanford University, "...The largest known oil spill beneath a tank is at Chevron Corporation's El Segundo, CA, facility--a puddle comprising 200 million gallons of oil...Chevron's El Segundo spill is 18 times larger than the Valdez spill. It is also worth noting that this Chevron spill is more than 3 times as large as the 64 million gallon release in the Persian Gulf in February, 1991, which caused President Bush to call Saddam Hussein an "eco terrorist."

Chevron is almost finished cleaning up this mess as much as they can. Keep in mind there are still many effects and residual oil of the much smaller Exxon Valdez present today and one can expect the concequences of the El Segundo spill to continue to be a major source of toxicity in our area for years to come.

 

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