Here's the dilemma, and we invite you to play along at home.
Let's say you want to publish a weekly list of what's new and worth a look among local RE listings. And then, all at once, the mass of local sellers and agents refuses to provide fodder, er, subjects. There are literally zero new listings in the Hill Section or Sand Section that are posted as open in the Beach Reporter's online listings. So, what do you do?
At MBC, first, we shut down the "Weekend" version of the open house listings. We have a "Sunday" version instead, still an ample guide. Then we bit the bullet and re-listed (!) a few homes we've noted before. Finally, we partway wrote up a house for the Hills that's new but not open. Only the Tree Section offers truly new stuff.
It's strange to be confronted with this problem at a time that our tracking shows inventory higher than MBC has ever recorded in a year-plus of public tracking – 104 SFRs west of Sepulveda on Saturday, a figure deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Hill Section
Don't forget to drop in on 815 2nd, subject of our weekend pricing poll. Open Sun. 2-4pm.
The only new listing in the Hills this week is 864 11th (pictured), but, lo, they have decided to keep the public at bay. It will be by-appt.-only to view this one.
Still it's worth a mention – 11th is a large (5br/5ba, 3775 sq. ft.) family home on a lot of nearly 8000 sq. ft. Pluses: Nice great room, updated kitchen & master bath, a garage in the back corner of the property, a decent yard. Start price seems quite high at $3.35m, considering that a somewhat comparable, yet larger (by 700 sq. ft.), home at 916 9th recently went into escrow priced at $2.895m (and that took several months of trying).
Sand Section
Hey, did we mention that 221 34th (pictured) – which debuted last week – is stunning, cool, clean, modern, and features world-class ocean, PV & pier views?
OK, now we have. Must see. Asking $5.4m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
Also up there at the high end, someone reported last week on their astonishment at 332 20th, a large and luxurious new home at the top of the 20th St. walkstreet.
That was a good reminder of a home we liked when it first came on. It's got style and commanding views. Kind of amazing it has lasted almost 90 days, but that $4.795m pricetag does limit the buyer pool. 332 20th is open Sun. 2-4pm.
When, oh when, will someone love 516 24th (pictured) like we do? Sure, it's close to the school and has no yard, but it's a tight, completely charming modern beach cottage with surprising views from the master. It's down a tad again, now at $2.349m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
Let's look at the other end – have you seen 131 Kelp, one of the least-pricey El Porto listings? It's a little place (2br/2ba, 1400 sq. ft.) surrounded by larger buildings, but cute and, we imagined, not long for the open market at $1.095m. Well, it's been 70 days now, not forever. A steal at $900k. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
Tree Section
In the past week, it seems that all the new listings are in the Tree Section at $2m+.
616 29th (pictured) is a 3-year-old Craftsman with 4br/5ba and 3500 sq. ft. We cringe a bit at the exterior styling – it just doesn't feel authentic. But many of the interior spaces are sweet and spacious.
Now, about that price – if $2.475m seems high for today's market, where more new homes are selling below $2m, well, what do you say to the folks who bought this home for $2.425m almost 3 years ago, in Aug. 2005? You can't get out flat? Open Sun. 1-4pm.
1820 Elm is a new Craftsman (we're just reporting what they say here) with 5br/4ba and a bit more than 3000 sq. ft. Starts at $2.349m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
3404 Pine boasts "hilltop" views from a neo-Spanish home. (We wrote that and then saw that the listing is calling it "Mediterranean," and yet we're sticking with Spanish.) It's the standard profile for a Tree Section newbie in some respects – 5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft. Starts at $2.45m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
How Far Up or Down Will the MB Median Price Be in 3 yrs.?
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About MBC
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77 comments:
Your most telling story could ly in the eventual sale of 616 29th. Aug. 05 purchase huh? I smell another 3 year ARM resetting!
If new construction is going for 1.9ish, these folks (I'm sorry to say, genuinely) are going to take a mean hit...thus punishing comps even more in the trees.
Someone is going to have to shell out at least 780k for the down, then they're gonna have to sell a lender on picking up the tab -- the lender is going to see that "new" homes are selling for a little more than 100% of the loan and they are gonna slap a big fat "DENIED" stamp on those papers...probably doing the proposed buyer a HUGE favor.
This isn't a builder spec house with 500k of padding in the profit margin, this is a live residence that doesn't have that flexibility.
This is the kind of stuff that's keeping me from committing to this market right now. I may not run in the 2.5mm crowd (obviously the 29th owners no longer will either) but pricing pressure flows downhill. And what effects those of you on knob hill is going to affect me down here in the mid 1's as well. Hell if the new stuff starts selling at 1.8, that stuff in the mid 1's is gonna fall another couple of k. I hope all you builders keep on building...you're making my case stronger and stronger everyday.
I love it, a win win for everyone
i agree with the last poster - the market moves in tandem - all houses that are not within two blocks of the ocean will move in the same direction
i do believe that many of the homes that are within two blocks of the ocean can move up while all the rest of MB moves down, and that other poster may not agree with me on that point - but in general we are in agreement
MBW:
12:04am is EXACTLY what is wrong with your blog. "I smell another 3 year ARM resetting!" This idiot is way off. The family is moving out of country. Job calls. Yet this idiot proclaims to know what is going on.
This is exactly how rumors similar to the one on 27th (the wall) started.
12:04 said: "This is the kind of stuff that's keeping me from the committing to this market right now." No, your lack of a strong income and savings is. You are just using what you think is someone's "demise" as your excuse! Perhaps you should focus on your career, and the money will come.
I hope for you that you find your sub $1mm home on Rosecrans. I'll be sure to gun it by your house in the early AM as you enjoy your refinery view!
229 12th is a teardown - priced at 2.999 million
what is going on with teardowns in that neighborhood - will they get the asking price ?
27th is old news, but as I understand it the original comment about "the wall" came straight from the seller's listing broker as people were touring through. The new made its way back here. Perhaps the leader of this blog should just call that broker, question her/him and report back here to us all...A simple challenge, and truth will prevail...
9:34 - If what you say is true re 29th street, you just did SIGNIFICANTLY more damage to their potential sale price than 12:04am did. Now that we know it is a relocation there is now a strong likelihood that whoever wants to buy that house has huge leverage over the seller. I've been through 3 relocations, and while each company was different, in the end, the seller has little leverage in this transaction, especially in a flat to down market.
For example, best case, the company buys the house from the current owner at the average of 2 or 3 appraisals. Now the company owns the property and last thing a non RE company wants to do right now is hold RE. They just want it off their books. Advantage - Buyer.
In another example, the seller has to sell the home themselves. All RE fees/commissions are eaten by the company, which is great. But they can't buy a new house in their new town until they get their equity out of 29th street to put a down payment down. In the meantime, they continue to pay their mortgage while not living in the house. Maybe they rent in the new town and the company pays the rent for 6-12 months. Either way, they have an asset back in MB that is likely drifting lower, or best case, staying flat. The longer it takes to sell, the more stress they feel. Leverage and advantage to the buyer.
In the third scenario, same as #2, but the company gives them a loan for their equity in 29th street for their down payment in their new town, and the owner pays the higher of the two mortgage payments. Either way, 29th still sits on the market and the current owners worry about their equity dropping farther if the house sits longer and longer. Once again, adnvantage and leverage to the buyer.
So in the end 9:34, thanks for helping all of us potential buyers out. Since I've been through three relos I would be chomping at the bit if I liked this house because I know I can get a bargain. For those who are interested in buying this home you can now squeeze the hell out of the owners of 29th, whether it is the current owners or the company they work for. I for one appreciate the color and will go look at the house today.
Let's not here anything further regarding the stupid back wall.
Do you guys bleed like this for every perceived injustice in the world? Must take a lot of time ...
On an on-topic subject (imagine that!), why do you suppose that other pricey markets like Newport and Irvine continue to rise when MB is not rising? Don't tell me about the joys of the OC (yes, there are pluses, but there are also negatives such as geographic isolation from a major international airport, isolation from decent nightlife, no major university (no, UCI does not cut it) and all of those soon-to-look dated tract houses).
Sorry, hear, not "here". That Kettle coffee is not strong enough
All of this talk about people's personal situations is wrong. It's a bit creepy. I know I would certainly not appreciate it if someone came on here and posted my job/family situation and sparked a discussion.
How about keeping comments on-topic, namely talking about homes and the local market. There's individual situations everywhere -- no need to "out" people who are just living their lives.
Waiting to Buy. I agree wholeheartedly with you. Thank You for a fair and thoughtful comment.
Mookie, have to say, I thought you were 12:04 in the first place and now your defensive/aggressive tone is the classic behavior of someone who's in the wrong becoming more self-righteous. How, and whether, you get that house is none of anyone's business but yours and the sellers and your RE agents, but on another note:
Mookie, what clearly comes across every time you comment is that by MB standards you are a guy with very little money and a very big mouth. Suffice it to say, pretty much everybody on MBC is bored with your non-stop idiotic theories and your perpetual state of walking around and kicking the tires. I wish today that the realtor at that house knows it's you and shows your fat ass to the door.
enough with the flaming wars
let's focus on discussing the houses that are for sale
Random thoughts from Huggy:
--9:34 said 12:04am is EXACTLY what is wrong with your blog. "I smell another 3 year ARM resetting!" This idiot is way off. The family is moving out of country. Job calls. Yet this idiot proclaims to know what is going on.
You are exactly correct, 9:34 but why direct your comment to the blog host? 12:04 is a member of MBW’s cult – it’s MBW who has created, nurtured and encouraged the Cult of the Clueless; he's not going to rein in his fan base.
This site is therapy for all COTC's bitter renters who can’t afford to buy in MB. Now the COTC has a place to go and vent, in their own sour grapes way, about how not being able to afford a home here (excuse me, not being able to “commit to the market”) is actually a good thing. Makes them all feel a lot better about themselves. And if they can run down a homeseller or two, spread spurious rumors or just post propaganda and made-up facts about the housing market as a whole, so much the better.
Btw, as I recall, this same idiot (or maybe another COTC idiot, I get them confused after a while) said the same ARM reset thing on this blog about the sellers of 2509 Poinsettia last year. That was a job relo too.
--Mookie, in commenting about 9:34, said, “If what you say is true re 29th street, you just did SIGNIFICANTLY more damage to their potential sale price than 12:04am did. Now that we know it is a relocation there is now a strong likelihood that whoever wants to buy that house has huge leverage over the seller.
Wrong, mookie. Spreading a rumor that the seller is desperate to sell because he may lose his home through foreclosure is far more damaging to the seller than the whole tortured relo issue that you posited. And let’s face facts, okay? That’s what the COTC does on this site because of their hysterical hatred of homeowners, homesellers and realtors. That’s what 12:04 did – try to slam another homeseller to make himself feel good about his rental situation. And if, in their own cheap way, they can contribute to talking the market down a little in the process, so much the better. Pure and simple, end of argument.
“The envious man thinks that if his neighbor breaks a leg, he will be able to walk better himself.” - Helmut Schoek.
I will concede, however, that 9:34 may have done the realtor on 29th Street a disservice. Mookie, if you end up going to this home and liking it, I’m sure you’ll end up wasting his time insisting that the sellers take an offer $500k below list. He’ll try to show you the comps but you’ll be so much better informed than he since you’ll be armed with MBConfidential. All power to the COTC!
--JustMe said, Let's not here anything further regarding the stupid back wall.
Do you guys bleed like this for every perceived injustice in the world?
Wrong, again, JustMe. The issue is not one particular lie such as the back wall on 27th Street; the issue is the constant spreading of disinformation by the Cult of the Clueless to further their cause of using this blog to talk the market down and to make themselves feel good about their own financial situation in the process. This particular odious practice of the COTC needs to be called out periodically – can’t count on MBW to do that.
--12:14 said enough with the flaming wars, let's focus on discussing the houses that are for sale.
Boy, are you on the wrong blog!
Mookie:
I thought you had half a brain. The fact that they are moving is common knowledge. It is not a secret. My intention was to stop some stupid rumor from starting about them.
If someone wants to go in cheap, (like you, I guess), that is fine. But odds are, as is always the case, you will be outbid by someone and, once again, lose out. Remember: Good homes sell around here, and they sell fast.
I wouldn't waste your time looking at it. It isn't in your price range (even with 250k off). If it were, you would have it other homes you looked at.
Before you make some statement about all this "knowledge" you have about relo's, make sure you know the story at that house. You look like more of a fool.
The pettiness here is so thick it's astounding. While many people may read this blog from time to time how many actually are in the market to buy?
Grow up.
Mookie:
thanks for the insight about relocations and the different company stances on them. Very good info on a RE blog. I went throught the home on 29th today and was very impressed. It felt solid, well kept and worth a look.
Went through some other New Spec homes as well, and they were all the same tired layout in not thr best locations - they are asking the same ballpark figure. The 29th home is far superior.
However, when its apples to apples, and the Spec homes are all the same value is going to be based on price, someone's gotta come down to get even a bite.
As for 29th, any publicity is good publicity - that house had great traffic today - and worth looking at if not just to see the terrific decorating job.
Mookie,
Once again, you have no idea. When I was relocated out of the country, the relo company pays your mortgage until the house sells and you get a housing allowance in the new country. Once again, you proved your ignorance in thinking the worse. Unless, maybe your company is low budget compared to the company I work for. I would just assume any decent company would have that relo option as I proclaim to be no big-wig like you and your high school heroics.
I'm not sure I can handle all these personal attacks. Please be nicer or I just might stop commenting on this blog. No, I can't stop, it's just WAY, WAY too easy to get inside the grill of 11:18 and 1:27 and that's what makes this site so fun. I am a little shocked though... Incredibly harsh tone for simply trying to explain some of the nuances of a relocation. Huggy, you may be correct, but when I read the original post I wasn't equating a reset with forclosure, but I see where you're going.
11:18 - sorry for my sarcasm coming across as defensive/aggressive. I think you need some thicker skin. You must not have had older brothers like I had. By the way, riddle me this riddler, how do my posts come across as somebody without money? Do all renters automatically sit in that category of low life? As for my theories, which ones are idiotic and illogical? The fact that virtually all homes selling in MB are selling below list? The fact that qualifications for mortgages are harder to come by therefore knocking many buyers out of the market? The fact that we are in a recession and no city will be immune? Put something on the table so we can debate. That's what makes this site fun and informative. As for my fat keester, I go about 6' 175 so fat is the last thing I am, although I should probably stop the donut intake three times a week.
As for you, my friend 1:27 - Those comments about the house not being in my price range really hurt. I'm very sensitive so should I now come back and talk to you about my income and net worth so I can feel better. Boy, you're just so provocative. But let me at least leave you with some facts and logic. Since Jan 1 there have been 7 homes that have sold/closed above 2mm, according to MBC's spreadsheets (excluding 604 15th). They were all reduced from original list by 11%, 8%, 0, 19%, 8%, 14%, and 7%. The average reduction was close to 10%. This may sound illogical to you, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say offering 10% below current list buys that house. That's a measly $250k. Chump change to a big hittler like yourself, but 250k nonetheless. I'm taking facts and applying a little logic. Tell me what your logic is for this house selling at or above asking price? Is it the fact that virtually NOTHING above 2mm in the trees has sold above asking price in the past6 months and you think somebody's due? Is it because they are nice people and deserve a price at or above ask? Is it because you live next door? Share your wisdom :)
5:12 - Appreciate the color. I do agree, all companies are different. I've had three and all three companies did it a different way. By the way, all are Fortune 500 Investment Banks so industry may have something to do with it. That being said, in Rye, NY, my neighbors worked at both IBM and Pepsi and their package was similar to those I discussed in my original post. Some better than others. In the end, even in your scenario, it doesn't sound like you had a put option on the equity in the home you left. While you didn't pay the mortgage and you had a housing allowance in the new home, if the equity dropped in your old home I'm guessing, yes guessing, that you ate that drop. If the company ate the drop in equity then that is a top notch relo package. If not, I wouldn't be stress free that I'm selling my home quickly in the tree section.
Thanks for bringing up my glory days again. Did I ever tell you guys how I scored four touchdowns against Central High back in the day? Your pal, AB.
So Mookie, let's cut to the chase: are you going to make an offer on the house?
I have been reading your posts for some time and have really enjoyed them. I finally can't resist commenting. You seem to really like the new house at 516 24th Street. It is quite nice, but I'm wondering if you realize it is the exact same house as the same builder recently built at 536 23rd Street, less than one block away (about a year ago). The exterior detail is a little different but it is the exact same house otherwise. I just wonder what it would be like to spend over $2M on a house and then find out at a neighborhood gathering that is the same house as your neighbor's. Kind of like buying a tract home without realizing it.
Who the hell would buy into this market right now...financial suicide for those not pulling in at least half a mill a year...
6:07 It's always weird to see the doppelganger of your house. I sold a home years ago that had at least three doppelgangers by the same builder and recently I saw that it sold again for 2.5m Couldn't believe it, but it was great construction with nice upgrades. To state the painfully obvious, building/development/construction is a business, too and they're just trying to make money like everybody else. I don't see this as a downside. I know I'll get roughed-up for this, but there it is.
Mookie = 6:13 = low income
so.bay realtors 2008=NO income
6:00 - On that piece of crap, not a chance :) Actually, I haven't seen it so can't comment either way. Based on discussions with my realtor I believe more homes are coming on market and inventory is rising. MBW says we are at 104 west of Sepulveda, a yearly high. From what I've been told April has not been a good month for sales (this is based on my realtor, not my own interpretation) and still believe things continue to get worse, not better. Just look at the consumer confidence number last week - a 21 year low. Monthly new jobs have been negative for three months in a row. And even with Fed Funds at 2.25%, going to 2% this week, mortgage rates really aren't following and banks are tightening their standards.
6:40 - That was so clever. See if you can do a little better next time.
Question for Huggy - I may have asked this previously, but can't remember. You always said back in the fall that "all bets were off" if we went into recession. Now that we are in recession (sure, you can wait a few more months to get the official recession announcement) what are your thoughts? What does "all bets are off" mean to you now? Not trying to bust your chops.
Mookie, You've been through three relocations? We can only hope that there will be a fourth, sooner rather than later. You can hype yourself, bs the clueless regarding your "expertise", but face it Kook, you're not left coast material. While you are truly a legend in your own mind, it's time to head back east and pick up the pieces. Your arragonce was refreshing, it now plays like an old running shoe. In short, nothing you write is credible.
The strident tone and personal attacks by Realtors on this blog are quite telling. Still, you have to feel for them, since they are starting to understand how the buggy whip manufacturers felt when the automobile was introduced. The information age has fully arrived, and for an industry that peaked in an atmosphere of exclusive and incomplete information, this is a VERY bad thing. It is for this reason that the voice of the Realtors on this blog is especially shrill. They have endured cyclical downturns in the past, but the have never had to deal with bloggers, open MLS's, and discount e-brokers like Redfin. What is worse, is that the next generation of home-buyers won't be intimidated to use these tools. Just keep your finger in the dike, I'm sure everything will be fine.
Mookie's a pair of classic Air Jordans:
priceless.
Anon 8:14 here again to appease the spelling police.
"They have endured cyclical downturns in the past, but THEY have never had to deal with bloggers, open MLS's, and discount e-brokers like Redfin."
8:14, all I can say is "rent on, bro, rent on." COTL
8:22
Wishful thinking friend. Looking at the nice still water from my 100 block house that I bought in '02, as I type. If YOU need a place to rent, I have a vacancy in one of my student housing properties in Waco. I hear Baylor has a good real estate program, just in case you need to go back to school, although DeVry might be a better fit for you.
Love,
Anon 8:14
8:12 - Help me here?
You wrote, "In short, nothing you write is credible." What have I posted today, or in the past, that isn't credible? Was I wrong about the homes in the trees having an average selling price close to 10% below original list since Jan 1? Have lending standards by banks gotten easier since I arrived in MB? Has consumer confidence actually risen recently?
I have to say, at least your leader Huggy backs things up with fact and logic, vs people like you who spout off about me not being credible and having nothing to support their statement.
As for me staying in MB... I only hope you and I become next door neighbors. I'm here for good!!!Left coast material? Hold on...I smoke plenty of ganj, I drink chardonay, I show up to Dodger games in the 3rd inning and leave in the 7th, I now have a USC flag hanging from my balcony, I drive a Range Rover, I lease my Mercedes, I'm going to the gym to try and get fit for summer, I'm getting the hair waxed off my back, I'm only letting my kids play one sport so they can focus year round so they get that college scholarship, I yell at the coaches because they don't play my kids as much as I know they deserve to play, my wife is getting a boob job, she aleady has had botox on the forehead and lips, I go to Starbux now instead of Dunkin Donuts, I talk on my cell phone at restaurants, my kids games, and the gym so everybody can listen to my conversations bc only I matter, and I'm going to put 60% down on my next home. How much more Californian can I be? Oh, wait a minute. If I only put 10-20% down on my next home that would make me a sure thing. CA pure.
Love all the comments from the "Anonymous" realtors! They're like used car salesmen, always full of BS. Thank goodness this market is going to force 70% of them to get out of the business.
More random thoughts from the Hugster:
--Mookie said, Now that we are in recession (sure, you can wait a few more months to get the official recession announcement) what are your thoughts? What does "all bets are off" mean to you now?
The point I was making about recessions is that even when you’re in one, you don’t really know how it is going to affect local real estate values until after the fact. Yes, as a general rule, recessions have an adverse effect on real estate values so long as the recession leads to a combination of local job losses (or at least minimal job growth), high foreclosure rates, lending problems, rising inventories, etc. Remember, the impact must be local – you can’t just extrapolate from national or even regional numbers. If it’s a fairly strong recession with local impact, like the early ‘90s (heavy aerospace job losses locally, lots of foreclosures and much higher inventories than we have today) , we could see a 15% drop in home prices, maybe even more (don’t believe the COTC loons who regularly come on this blog and fictionalize about 25-50% price drops during the last downturn – didn’t happen). To date, I am not aware of any significant local impact in terms of MB residents losing their jobs (although I have no way to gauge that other than anecdotally) or having their homes foreclosed (very minimal – only 4 scheduled for auction and one of those, 3412 Pacific – was saved from the auction block with a private sale that netted five offers!). Inventory is higher than it’s been recently but not abnormally so. Lending is a problem.
But who knows? If we are, in fact, in a recession and this one turns out worse than the last one, maybe we’ll see a 20-25% decline in home values. I don’t think that’s going to happen but you know me – glass half full, silver lining, lemonade out of lemons kind of person that I am.
--7:39 said so.bay realtors 2008=NO income
Hey, now, I was one of my firm’s top producers last year (and still haven’t received any congrats from the COTC – where’s the love here?). Anyway, if mookie can rest on his athletic laurels, I figure I can rest on my 2007 production. Besides, I’ve already booked a sizable amount of income this year and the year’s not half over yet.
--8:14 said The strident tone and personal attacks by Realtors on this blog are quite telling.
What, are you new to this blog? What about the strident tone and personal attacks directed at me? Isn’t that equally telling about the COTC?
--8:14 also said They (realtors) have endured cyclical downturns in the past, but the have never had to deal with bloggers, open MLS's, and discount e-brokers like Redfin.
Redfin? You are completely clueless, aren’t you? You see one 60 minutes piece and you think this is a national phenomenon with import here in the South Bay. I’ve seen maybe two Redfin transactions locally (one was a listing on a N Redondo townhome – don’t know if it ever sold). In fact, the discount brokers are on the ropes. They thrive in booming markets, not slow ones, as they rely on volume. Catalist should be the next to go under locally.
--Morgan said Thank goodness this market is going to force 70% of them to get out of the business.
Now, now, Morgan, you’re sounding like a bitter renter. I can see how a mass exodus from this business will benefit me, but how does it help you?
I don't know what I enjoy more, MB Realtors commenting on the economy, or people actually paying attention to their nonsense.
Folks, if they actually had any real fiscal knowledge, they wouldn't be trying to peddle your local real estate.
btw - we are in a recession and it began in Nov. of 07.
Good evening.
8:31 Waco, Baylor? There's enough stupidity here without a brilliant Texan weighing in. Are you now going lecture us how Texas would be the 40th largest country on it's own and how it was a country from 1850 to 1853? Lecture on, big Tex, lecture on...dumb hillbilly trying to play big in Cali.
Mookie,
That was a pretty funny description of your idea of the SoCal stereotype, wrong, but funny nonetheless.
Angry,
Why would anybody congratulate you on your 2007 earnings? After your sophmoric "wanna compare 1099's" statements from last fall? You should change your handle to "1099." That'll show 'em.
With all due respect for how hard the moderator works to make this a great site, unless the moderator appoints someone else to police the shrill comments here all the thoughtful people will leave.
I already know of a number of the best posters that have moved off this site due to the silly things that are going on here
Awww, JR, still stewing about our comparative finances I see (remind me again - who's angry?). So sorry about your lack of financial wherewithal, although I understand that's a prerequisite for membership in the COTC. I guess that just highlights the difference one would expect to see in a 1099 versus your W-2. Try to get over it (and check your spelling of sophomoric or try downsizing on those big words).
5:19 said, I already know of a number of the best posters that have moved off this site due to the silly things that are going on here.
Oh, puhleeeeeze! For those in need of translation, let me restate 5:19's comment:
Dear moderator, I really don't know anyone who posts here because it's all anonymous but I'm making a sophomoric (see, JR?) appeal for censorship so please censor Huggy and anyone else who expresses even modest disagreement with our Cult about the state of MB's RE market and our negative opinion of realtors and homesellers (those greedy bastards, all trying to sell before their ARMs reset).
Is that about right, 5:19?
Well Kook, you've got the stereotypes down. Keep reading the NYT. My neighbor? You don't have the cash or income, even to afford the rent down here. But one thing you have right, in your rant you didn't mention going to the beach, swimming or surfing . . . please check out West LA. It's your kind of place.
Mookie said: "Do all renters automatically sit in that category of low life?"
Pretty much. It is easy to tell which homes are rented on a block. It is all those people that can't afford to live in the neighborhood, yet rent here so they look good. Sort of like those people that lease their MBZ's and live in Lomita. All show.
By renting here, they can afford to live in the neighborhood.
"By renting here, they can afford to live in the neighborhood." >>Pretty much true in my case. Of course, my household income is well over the median for MB and would have bought something pretty decent a few years ago....of course I didn't live here a few years ago. And looks like a lot of OWNERS on my block could not purchase at current wishing price. So this is a temporary non-equilibrium condition.
"It is easy to tell which homes are rented on a block. It is all those people that can't afford to live in the neighborhood, yet rent here so they look good" Pretty cheesy assessment. I drive a VW which I paid cash for. You might be able to say you can tell the rental houses because they look "run-down". Of course, to that I would say blame the owner since he can't afford to cashflow the property and hence doing maintenance is like pulling teeth.
With prices clearly dropping across the country, I would say the ones that chose to sit out the "idiocy" have been proven to be the prudent ones....I've got money in the bank from selling my last house.
Yes, I found the housing currently moronicaly priced. However, with prices dropping at 10% per year, I figure I am saving at least 100,000 dollars a year in lost appreciation...and my rent is cheaper than a mortgage would have been.
I still wish the bubble had not happened, things would be much simpler.
Boy Mookie sounds like you don't think too much of CA. Well we don't think much of you so go ahead and leave. We don't want you here as there are enough tools like you running around. Your rantings contain no credibility. Reduced listing prices does not mean as much as you portray it to.
So I recently sold my house and it was maybe 5% less than I would have got in 2006. I'm over it, and I suggst you get over your reliving your high school days as you obviously peaked in high school.
1:47- Not sure where you get prices are dropping 10% per year, but it is completely unfounded. Maybe you're still living in Detroit.
I think there was an element of truth to everything that Mookie posted....there are certainly a good amount of people here that are like Mookie pointed out. That is usually the beautiful point of hyperbole. Take something with a bit of truth to it, blow it out of proportion to emphasis the irony (or sometimes hypocrisy) of the instance.
Come on, haven't you ever gotten stuck on the 405 and looked at the other drivers around you.....everyone driving brand new car, regardless of how "affluent" the driver looks?
Here is a couple of LA facts for you: last few years, ~80% of LA homes were ALT-A. And of those, ~85% are stated income "liar loans".
So what does that say about the supposed affluence of LA as a whole?
2:06- And how is LA defined? So you can look at a person and tell how affluent that person looks. So I assume George Lucas looks affluent as does anyone not wearing an Armani or Boss suit. Good data, 2:06, that really clears it all up.
Anon 2:00 PM. Ah, you are correct! MB is not down 10%:
Manhattan Beach 25 $1,425,000 $1,620,000 -12.04%
MB is down 12.04% per the california association of realtors!
Very witty comment about Detroit. I can see that you have trouble realizing that it is now April 2008 and not April 2005.
Hmm. Median income of Los Angeles is what, 50-K?
Median car you see on 405 is probably half that.
Something does not add up. But you may be right, perhaps those all belong to George Lucas and he is merely lending them out.
Mookie-
Still laughing at your post, the USC Flag sent it over the top. May I suggest that you adorn your vehicle with a USC license plate holder, complete with your major, as I am convinced that this will gain you access to the secret club, and perhaps the secret handshake. As noted, this will only worked on a leased high-end vehicle.
I hope your family finds the home of their dreams at a price tag you can swallow when the time comes. M.B. welcomes you as renter or owner.
Huggy-
Back from the ashes, this blog's antagonist, or nemeses to some, returns. Congrads on your recent accolades. Are we invited to this years buffet and Beach Report's picture opt for 2008? Its a love/hate relationship you share with many on this blog. Your to witty and funny to ignore, but to noncommital to truly trust.
2:29- You can't compare just one month. You obviously don't know what you are doing. Try this. A little better, but you still can't just blanket compare median numbers. Good luck in hoping for that 50% decline.
Median Sale Prices for Jan 1-April 27:
2007 - $1,789,000
2008 - $1,647,000 (-7.9%)
MBW should restrict this commentary to those who make over $500k/year. If you do not make over $500k/year, why even bother commenting on a neighborhood you can not afford. Start an E of Sepulveda blog.
Not too worry, pretty soon the dropping house prices will make your elitist worries a moot point.
By the way, a 200-K income is sufficient to purchase lower end tree section homes.
That is exactly why the market is tanking. People think they can "afford" a home just because they can borrow the money. If you make $200k/year, you really shouldn't be buying anything over $1M. Actually, your sweet spot should be $600k~$800k (i.e. Redondo). It's not meant to be an elitist comment. It's basic math/common sense. Unfortunately, common sense is not that common, but bad math skills are very common.
2:08- You're not too bright, or your parents are giving you a $400k down payment. No lender is going to give you a loan with 20% down a $1M+ house. If they do, then you can't afford it. I'm not sure why everyone thinks they should be able to buy a house in MB. It's just not the case, and the prices won't drop just to allow someone making close to $200k be able to afford it. Listen to 2:21 and look in Redondo, Culver City, and maybe if you're lucky Hermosa Hills for something under $1M. How do you think this all started in the first place. These people on this site should stop blogging and focus on making more money if they want to buy a MB house. It's not elitist, it's just a fact. Blogging on this site is not making prices drop any further and faster just so you can afford.
Did I say lower end trees section house or what?
Look it up, selling in the low 800's.
Matches my 200-K comment pretty much exactly.
Does it bother you that "commoners" would be living in the same neighborhood? Geez. You guys are wacko.
Dear Math Genius,
There are only 3 listings in the Tree Section below $900k, and they are all tear-downs in crappy locations.
If you were willing to put down $160k and locked up one of these gems for $800k, you'd need over $50k in cash a year to cover just the Payment (i/o of course), Insurance and Taxes. That would leave you very little to live on. Wakos? You may be correct, but this is really just sound advice they are giving you. MB is not your neighborhood. The truth hurts sometimes.
3:16 - Are you lumping in 3301 N. Valley as a tear-down ($875k)? A lot of folks would disagree.
OK, let's get a grip here.
First of all, no way in hell would I buy any one of those properties.
And I make a hell of a lot more than 200-K per year, but apparently I am less of an elitist than some of the snooty folks around here.
However, I believe you have just made my point for me. Yes, there are houses for less than 900-K. The cheapest one that I know of is 849. With 20% down, you can certainly afford to pay for that with less than 200-K income.
No hedge fund manager's will buy those.
So, sorry to burst your "bubble", but it does look like entry income to trees section is ~200-K.
Ironically, median in all of MB is <200-K.
If you really want a 500-K/year median income, you had better move out of MB.
Signed: Not an elitist fool.
2:57- Not sure where you are looking, but I only see 3301 Valley for $875k, 1400 Oak for $899k, 2505 Pacific for $949k. Go knock yourself out. So if you put 20% down on $870k your monthly mortgage (assuming PITI) would be close to $5,700 assuming a 7% int rate. Of course, you could try int only, but again that's how all this happened in the first place. So to have PITI be at 38% of your monthly income you would need $15k, and that is if a lender is willing to lend to you at 38% and you have no other debt. So, in doing that you get to live on Valley in a POS. Good luck. It's not that I don't want you here, it's that you can't really afford it. BTW, I sold my house and live in a much cheaper area now (still by the beach) and I make over $200k, so don't be calling me an elitist. Just don't believe you could afford it based on your income you are telling us.
Go to front page of this blog and go look at Kaye Thomas website. I think that one has been on sale for 6 months now.
I will not argue one bit with your cost analsis.....I would not do it either. And I don't even think that one would rent for more than 2,500, so no rational investor would buy it either.
Once again, my point is simply that you do not need 500-K/year median income to purchase in MB, and in fact can purchase using current federal guidlines for a 200-k annual income.
I don't think that you can dispute me.
My apologies MBW. Is that one of your listings?
I am not surprised someone would disagree on this blog, but yes, I would consider a 1955, 1,058sf bungalow a tear-down. However, the lot is not attractive to builders, so it will remain as-is for the foreseeable future. That was really not my point in any case. Someone with a $200k income should not be considering purchasing in the tree section or greater MB for that matter.
I still don't understand your argument about 200-K. Forget a second about the square footage of those listings....that's about 4-X income. If one CAN afford it, why not? Are you saying that 4-X income is simply unaffordable? Or that one should not live in a 1,000-sq foot house?