Monday, May 5, 2008

MB Market Update for 4/30/08, Trees

This is the third and final installment of our MB Market Update for April 30, 2008. You can download the complete 4/30/08 update by clicking here, or at any time by using the link at the upper-right corner of the main MBC page.

Tree Section

There were 48 active SFRs in the Tree Section as of April 30, with the inventory equally split between those priced below $2m (24) and those priced above $2m (24).

We saw 9 new listings in the Trees in this 2-week window, making it 15 new listings in April for this submarket. Most are resales. (Hey, we thought people were holding off on selling in this market...).

  • 3404 Maple (pictured) is mislabeled a "Mediterranean," but it's a nice enough 5br/5ba, 3300-sq.-footer that will be familiar to folks who know today's new construction in the area. Sellers paid $1.535m just more than 4 years ago (Feb. 2004) and now seek $1.799m(+$264k/+17%).
  • After a quick price cut, 500 14th asks the same $1.799m for a substantially smaller (3br/3ba, 2350 sq. ft.) home on the corner with Ardmore. Well, it is near downtown.
Hm, it's also about the same price as even smaller (and more forlorn) 672 19th (see "Be Their Guest").
Just 3 1/2 years ago (Aug. 2004), the sellers picked up 500 14th for $1.290m, so they're seeking almost the tax-free max $500k at the moment.
  • 2700 Pacific (pictured) becomes the third of 4 homes at the intersection of 27th/Pacific to hit the market in the past year.
The others didn't fare well – 2622 Pacific tried for a while last year at $1.699m and later $1.599m, but canceled rather than sell for less than that. Meanwhile, 794 27th is the celebrity-owned home diagonally across, and it's in the news now because its list price just dropped to $401k below what the current owner paid just 2 years ago.

2700 Pacific offers 4br/4ba in a newer, 2900 sq. ft. home. The listing's 36 pics (we need not exaggerate) guarantee that you don't miss a feature. Sellers paid $1.695m a full 4 years ago (May 2004) and they now seek $2.099m (+$404k/+24%). Uh-oh, that's the same price as far more stylish 794 27th, with the same location.
  • Helping to crowd the $2.099m price point is 2308 Walnut, much larger than the two homes mentioned above (4br/3ba and 3875 sq. ft.) but also somewhat older (1989).
  • Moving up the $2m scale, 616 29th is a resale in a quiet location that starts at a price that's a bit high even for new construction these days – $2.475m for a 4br/5ba Craftsman (they say) with 3500 sq. ft. of living space. Just 2 1/2 years ago, the sellers paid $2.425m, so the price looks flat from here. For now.
  • 1901 John (pictured) is worth waiting for, we'd say. It's a newer (ca. 2000) Spanish on a corner lot with lots of great details throughout. The home's on the larger side, too, for the Trees, at 5br/5ba and 3700 sq. ft.
The sellers know it's something special, so they're aiming high – $2.695m to start, with only 5 Tree Section listings currently priced higher. If they get that, the sellers will be up nearly a cool mil – they paid $1.7m in late 2000.
Also, there were 3 newbies, all of them – intriguingly – priced lower than the last couple of resales noted above:
  • 1820 Elm, Craftsmanesque with 5br/4ba, 3025 sq. ft., starting at $2.349m.
  • 2504 Pine, a larger CaliterraneaSpanish with 5br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft., and a disjointed listing writeup that notes its, quote, "Beautifully Landscaped 'Big-Enough' Backyard." Starts at $2.395m.
  • 3404 Pine, a neo-Spanish home with great treetop views from, well, can you believe, the laundry room? Otherwise, the hilltop location is wasted. Offers 5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft. at $2.450m.
Among the price-choppers, none was bigger news than 794 27th, as mentioned above. That seller has baked in a huge loss.

Meanwhile, 625 26th got the heck out of the busy mix above $2m and re-priced itself a buck below that threshold. (It began at $2.185m.) Dare we point out that this is another case of a relatively recent purchase (Aug. 2004) that is now not asking so much more than the purchase price ($1.795m)?

Also, The Twins on Poinsettia (3307 and 3309) adjusted again to $2.599m, and fellow newbie 661 26th shot below them to $2.579m.

Finally, we saw 8 sales close in this period. Among these:
  • 2317 Pine, one of Mrs. MBC's first official picks, closed at $1.878m, a goodly share above its $1.799m start price (see "It Can't Last");
  • 790 Rosecrans, oh, tired, awful, wonderful 790 Rosecrans, closed at $1.235m, fully $350k and 22% off its $1.585m start price (from Aug. 1 – remember those heady days?!?);
  • 3012 Palm, which was, by profile, a failed flip (purchased for $1.3m in June 2007) closed for $1.360m, after wish-pricing at $1.579m; and

26 comments:

Sold and Waiting to Buy said...

MBW - Or All
Speak out as to the Year you think the current MB market selling prices are most equivalent to? I am interested the typical home (not best of best) in Sand or Tree.

From prior weeks looked like pricing was equivalent to 2006, but in the recent posting and prices is it more 2004?

Anonymous said...

On average for the typical home in the trees- old construction (1950's or so) 1,700-2,200 sf we are close to beg 2005 prices. You can point to 3517 Elm that went pending recently with a list of $1,199k and the sellers paid $1,045k in 10/04. 605 36th Street sold for $1,355k and was purchased for $1,056k in 10/03. Of course, there is 3012 Palm that MBW makes reference to, but we don't know what that home's price might have been in 2004/2005.

Just my thoughts on some older homes. Of course, newer homes are much more difficult to compare given the quality or lack of in some of the newer homes.

Any more thoughts/data would be intriguing to determine where in the cycle we are.

alan ventures said...

I am looking for the home owner wants to sell but might be hesitating with the current market.

We sold and though I want to wait my wife would like to buy.

We are looking for:
- South MB / Sand (could be lower Hill or Martyrs)
- Price range is up to $2M, less is better ;-)
- 3 bedrooms (best is a 4th or bonus). Could be as small as 1900 sq ft but best is ~2500+ sqft.

I know a "mere" $2M wont buys us a walk street or new. But that is not our expectation.

Out target: older non-walk street but well maintained - or easily remodeled OR perhaps newer half lot.

(Note: 505 3rd is not a good remodel option, and 437 1st is a very busy street and my opinion is that home my have issue under the new paint)

A direct deal can be good for both of us & We will put $1M+ down so mortg won’t create a closing issue.

Note: I am not an agent, and actually have one of MBs best agents who I think is terrific.

Our email is alanventures@gmail.com all in confidence.

Timothy617 said...

Alan Ventures - good luck to you, but this is really not the place for your ad space.

Timothy617 said...

Sold and waiting to buy - you should do some research on-line. There are several theories related to an 18-year real estate cycle, which contains many ups and down. The last major down was in 1990. I suspect we are seeing the beginning of a new cycle - give or take a year. Most down turns are identified by high inventory, low demand and rising interest rates. We are going to see rising interest rates soon. That coupled with high inventory and low demand will surely push pricing down. I know the bulls think MB is a micro economy that is bullet proof, but they should tell that to the people that couldn't sell homes on the strand in 1990. I know, I know, 1990 was different. There were failing banks, over building, poor lending standards, lack of S&L regulations, etc. It’s extremely different that what is going on today. No comparison. Right?

Anonymous said...

Let Alan Ventures alone. If I was a seller and wanted to not deal with agents, he would be a good buyer, or he could be an agent, but doubt he would give his email. Why does someone always have to jump all over someone else?

Anonymous said...

Just an excerpt from an interesting timeline. Sorry for the copy and paste, but you can do your own research to estimate where we are in the cycle.

http://www.rntl.net/history_of_a_housing_bubble.htm

1994: Housing begins its comeback. People who had the intelligence to wait for the bottom are buying now at great values. Even rising mortgage rates are not shaking the recovery.


Bright Spots Some Areas Showing Signs of Recovery After Four-Year Slump in Home Prices
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jan 16, 1994; pg. 1

Lenders scramble to keep housing comeback alive
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Mar 30, 1994; D; pg. 1

First-Time Buyers Who Waited Spark Housing Rebound Real estate: After years of ice-cold sales, the city's Westside market is finally starting to heat up.
SCOTT SHIBUYA BROWN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jun 5, 1994; pg. 10

Home Sales Up 24% From Last Year
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jun 26, 1994; pg. 6

June Home Sales Best in 5 Years Ventura County Is Leader
Jack Searles; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jul 26, 1994; pg. 8

Rising mortgage rates shake but don't break state housing industry
Lee, Patrick; Los Angeles Times; Oct 7, 1994; pg. D1

Timothy617 said...

Very interesting.

Just go to the link

http://www.rntl.net/history_of_a_housing_bubble.htm

Anonymous said...

1:53p great info - it shows a 4 plus year slump before any signs of a recovery.

If you look at the historic data it included a multi-year bottom before the up turn.

So no signs yet that we are on a bottom and even then we still have lots of time before an uptick.

Anonymous said...

1:53 Here- So I was reading the archives in the LA Times. At one point in May 1995, prices were back to summer 1988 levels. Along the way, there were articles with talks of the bottom in 1992, 1993, slight recoveries in other years. So I am guessing this time around in 2008 we are very similar to 1991 or 1992. Will be interesting to see if history repeats itself... It did in 1990 from the 70's and if so this time, we will hit bottom in 2011/2012 with prices maybe back to 2002/2003 levels. I'm guessing that could be a stretch, but if things continue as they are we could easily see another 15-20% decline which would put us in mid-late 2003 levels. Would be interested to hear others, as I do recall 1993-1994 in MB as having a house on every block for sale and a lot of houses rented from the aersopace people that moved away.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if 835 Marine is off the market?

I emailed the listing agent several days ago and never heard back.

Is that a sign that the house is under contract or an indication of the seller's true interest in selling?

Or is it a reflection of the agent?

Or am I just over-reaching in thinking that, especially in this market, agents would respond to an email?

I do note that the property is not on the usual MRMLS website (it's on SoCalMLS) but it's also on Redfin (Thanks to MBCon for introducing me to that helpful site). I also note that the agent is not a local MB agent but is from Orange County.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:56pm

Yes, 835 Marine is indeed still on the market and is on the MRMLS
(Z08062601). One downside to using out of area agent is that he/she is not regularly in the neighborhood so may not even be aware sign is even down.... :)

Anonymous said...

2003 levels??? That would be rad. I sold a house here in 04' and 05'...did pretty well.
Can't believe we'd see those prices again but it would be pretty awesome. Maybe if interest rates jump to 9 or 10% on jumbos! I used to work with a broker back east - he said their firm is expecting 8% on 30 yr fixed conforming loans by this time next year....so I guess 9 - 9.25 really isn't far off.
Would be cool -- gonna scoop up places as rentals, let it ride for 10 years, sell and call it a day.

Anonymous said...

"9:40" or should I say "Mookie." One of the funniest comments of the year.

alan ventures said...

Timothy617 - thanks for at least being nice about your "but this is really not the place for your ad space."
...I actually think a blog about MB RE is actually a great place for me to ask community members for help finding a MB home.

...you are ok with a direct non agent sale aren't you?

Anonymous said...

721 36th looking to make 200k in a year. Please pass the bong.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:04,

Be careful not to drink the water.

Timothy617 said...

Alan Ventures - This is not my blog, so I guess it's up to MBW to limit this type of solicitation.

In any event, your offer is a bit confusing as you add that you have the best agent in MB, so how is that a direct non-agent transaction?

Also, I am not an agent, but I do know flying blind without an agent is not smart. Hiring the best representation in any transaction is always the best course to take. Any long-term successful business person will tell you the same thing.

alan ventures said...

Timothy617
My message is very clear, I am looking for someone out there who would like to sell their home in South MB for $2M or less as I am not happy w current choices. My thought is there are people who want to sell but don’t want to hassle listing in the current environment and a deal with less than 2 agents (0 or 1) can leave more money for the owner.

AS for the transaction and an agent that is up to me and i do have a great agent and I can weigh the value delivered or needed.

That said a transaction is not difficult. There are many business (or people - agents) that will do the paperwork for a flat rate. This market is very small and it is easy for a buyer to understand the nuances of locations and value. An inspector is easy to hire and if you are in business or bought other houses the negotiation is not hard either (people normally drive this even with an agent).

Also - a SHOUT OUT TO MY BEAUTIFUL WIFE! I promise I will get off this BLOG and get to work so we can buy a bigger house!

MBWatcher said...

I don't see anything objectionable in Alan's direct solicitation of potential sellers. I wish him the best. There are a lot of readers here and it's an interesting angle he's trying.

By the way, if Alan makes a deal, MBC's cut is normally 2.5%, but that's negotiable ;).

Anonymous said...

If Alan Ventures is really serious then I say more power to you and your wife.

We are in the same boat and would love to see if this works for you.

Keep us updated.

Anonymous said...

Shout out to my beautiful wife? Turn off the sitcoms and tell her you love her....sheeshhh.

Anonymous said...

Still no word from the listing agent at 835 Marine.

Clearly, the out of area agent doesn't read MBCon.

Is this typical?

Like Alan Ventures, we're looking for a similar property -- reasonable house, reasonable size, reasonable distance from schools, but are willing to be patient until sellers get more realistic about prices.

I hear more and more stories about people having trouble getting financing - despite over 20% down and excellent credit. Banks just don't want to make the loans --at least not right now.

wez said...

Maybe MBConfidential needs to add an MBClassfidential, you know all anonymous, like a dating service with just an id number published publically.

I'll start: LonelyBoy42 seeks long term relationship with SunbleachedHouse in Strand Section. Must like surfboards, bikes, old cars, gratuitous technology installations, hosting gourmet eating and drinking in large groups, and being left alone while we travel. South-facing sunny disposition a plus.

Anonymous said...

Just a trivia note, Allan Ventures is the founder of the Rock 'n Roll Hall Fame group "The Ventures."

Mr. Ventures, let me say on behalf of the entire community, it is an honor to have you here.

krh said...

yes, 835 marine is still on the market. renters are moving out shortly. my guess is that the home wouldn't show too well right now because of it. but also concur that agents should provide a bit more customer service (responding to e-mail would be a good start) in this environment. house will be vacant in one week.

 

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