May and June may be great selling months, in general, but Memorial Day weekend is a time for car races, barbeques and beach time, not new listings or open houses.
Literally 1 new SFR listing west of Sepulveda has come on since last week, and that's a $6m+ Sand Section home (2719 Manhattan Ave.) that isn't open this weekend. So we'll pick out listings worth special attention for one reason or another.
The way the weather is shaping up this weekend, don a parka if you dare to trod from open to open.
Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."
As always, click any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.
Hill Section
Everyone talks about the big money and even bigger estates in the Hills, but regular folks live there, too. They snatch up houses like 511 N. Dianthus (open Sat. 1-4pm) and 1100 John (open Sun. 1-4pm) and then make it a point to be overheard in crowded restaurants talking about their "home up in the Hill Section."
Sand Section
We've said it before, we'll say it again – 332 20th (pictured), up at the top of the 20th St. walkstreet above Highland, is splendid, plush, unique and offers great ocean views, plus back-door access to Live Oak Park. You would think it'd be taken by Summer, but that's just around the corner. Currently at $4.495m. Open Sat. & Sun., 1-4pm.
Another wower is at 228 29th Place, which we've urged readers to drop in on previously.
The fall from great heights would seem to be nearly complete – this one began at $3.049m last year and now stands (after a legit re-list) at $2.499m. Contemporary, custom, big views and 4 levels, if memory serves – seems like 6. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
Tree Section
560 36th is a new home that's really trying to move. After just 2 months on market, the price is down $500k/17%. The listing screams "please submit all reasonable offers!"
36th is surprisingly warm for a concrete-glass-and-steel modern home. It's new construction with 4br/4ba, 4000 sq. ft. and a different flavor – not what you expect in the neighborhood and not the sort of stark, soulless contemporary that you might find elsewhere. (The listing has pics but they don't do it much justice.) Overall, the project is pretty daring for a speckie and for this location – steps from the armory and Sand Dune Park. That's why it's down already to $2.499m. Open Sun. 2-5pm.
2812 Elm recently crossed a shocking threshold – 600 days on market. It began Sept. 13, 2006, and if it has taken 7 total days off market since then, we've got monkeys for nephews.
When the listing urged buyers, in January, to "Hurry, this home will not last!" MBC said, "Really, Don't Hurry," because we thought they must be kidding.
But now, partly with Mrs. MBC's urging, we're changing our tune completely. It's a weekend must-see.
The sad part about this case is that it's a very charming house, great curb, nice kitchen, and yet challenged by a layout that is just too hard to swallow, with 2 of the 4 bedrooms in awkward places downstairs.
Homes that haven't sold have a way of not selling, so this one's been stuck in a feedback loop for months. The first problem was that shoot-the-moon start price 600+ days ago: $1.769m. Current price of $1.599m means the sellers lose something if they make a deal – they paid just $15k less in June 2005.
It's time folks, it's time. First, drop by, even if it's just for moral support. Give the layout and location and other charms a serious thought. Somebody, please make an offer. Have some holiday spirit. Open Sun. 1-4pm.
How Far Up or Down Will the MB Median Price Be in 3 yrs.?
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95 comments:
2812 elm... can you say stale. and the bedroom with a door to the garage and laundry room is a joke. thats why everyone has laughed at the price of 1.8M down to 1.6M. its a house with problems. houses with problems are just like the ones on busy streets next to gas stations --they sell for a discount. 1819 poinsettia has the same issues. bad layout, no dining room. MBW, you ask us to take pity on the sellers. not me. i take pity on any buyer who overpays for these properties. in our down market these houses are priced at least $250K too high.
7:34- Not sure where you get your $250k too high. I will say that 2812 Elm sold for $1,299k in 2/04, and one would expect from recent sales around the same time frame (605 36th purchased in 10/03 for $1,056k and sold for $1,355k) would indicate a value of below $1,500k for this house. No wonder it has sat for 600 days. Pity the poor sap who pays more than $1.5M for this house.
mbw, what is so negative about living by sand dune park? i actually think it's rather nice to be so close to a park. also, it is nice that my kids actually play with kids that don't (for lack of better words) look like they do. what is the perception vs. the reality of living by the park? we were going to check out some homes in the area and would love some solicited advice.
We, wife and 2 kids, lived a block from the sand dune for 13 years . . . and loved it. Great open space area, walking the stairs is cool, great playground and open area. Never had problems with locals or "outsiders". I think it's the best park in MB because it's so different.
Hate to criticize you MBW, but "regular folk" do not live in $1M+ homes. I would estimate less than .1% of the U.S. population live in million dollar (or greater) homes.
Actually, I am probably a couple of decimal places off in my estimate above. It's probably more like one in 100,000 which would be .001%.
To be clear, I love Sand Dune Park and spin by frequently. Good for kids too. Buyers hear things about how crowded it gets and look down on it. Not saying that's right, exactly, just that it's the rap.
The armory is just odd, and obviously unsightly. The feds have rejected every offer I've made on the land so far :)
Daily Breeze reports median home price in MB down 25.8% yoy!!
I'm sure there's a very good explanation though, right? I mean, here in MB after all, the world's only community impermeable to little things like macro economic downturns?!! Hilarious.
The ONLY South Bay city to fall hard than MB was Carson, and they only beat us by ONE TENTH OF ONE PERCENT! Extra hilarious!
Yes, for all you who openly bash the likes of Lawdale, Torrance, Redondo, Hermosa, El Segundo, Inglewood, etc., you have all been duped by your lowly neighbors. They actually have lost LESS in their homes on a percentage basis YOY than you. Now, who's the smartest guy on the block? I know, not you.
But I'm sure you'll find a way to justify all this...won't you?
-MB Reality
Check out this weeks Barron (5.26)
Cover Headline:
"LUXURY HOMES 15% OFF"
Subheading:
"... Bargain hunters, beware. A further 10% slide is likely."
Interesting quote about how sales volume slow down precedes price drop by 6 to 8 months.
Also other great articles about the reality and facts about the economic issues still to come.
MB Reality, you are, well, Unreal. I'll try to simplify this for you since it's been discussed to death over the past 6 months. All this means is that cheaper houses are selling faster than more expensive houses. It doesn't mean that the price of any individual house, or houses as a class, has changed. This is why the newpapers, especially the Daily Sleeze, love this statistic. It can change so dramatically and be emphasized such that 6th grade level readers (the level at which the content is written) will buy the paper. and cite it.
i have heard two sides to the debate over sand dune park
on one side are those that like the diversity of the park, they like the fact that their kids can meet and play with kids from families with fewer advantages.
many of these parents really like the diversity.
on the other side, i have heard from families that say the following - there is plenty of academic research that shows that parks like sand dune park attract crime to the surrounding neighborhood for this reason, many of the walking paths through nice residential neighborhoods have caused huge increases in burglaries.
basically, if you live in a neighborhood with no amenities that bring in outsiders, all the neighbors know to call the cops as soon as they see an outsider. however if you are near sand dune park and the neighborhood is full of outsiders, the outsiders that want to commit crimes can blend in with the outsiders that want to play with their kids
i think it is fair to say that both sides have a point - sand dune park brings in nice kids from other neighborhoods, and our kids benefit from playing with them. at the same time, sand dune park provides a cover for a small number of extra criminals to come in to the neighborhood around sand dune park and commit crimes
at the end of the day, everyone in MB has a choice as to whether to live near sand dune park or not and thus can choose what is important to them
that is freedom of choice
The YoY numbers as stated at 25.8% drop for MB are subject to the fluctuation of small sales volume related undulation of the market -- that point is well taken.
But to then argue further that that means that there really isn't a drop in prices in MB is plainly not accurate.
YTD numbers in MB compared to 2007 are lower by about 7 % -- and it's difficult to wish that away based on small sample size. It is quite reasonable to expect that there will be further drops in median home prices in MB on a YTD and trailing 12 month medians going forward. MB is following an expected lag attributable to relative affluent areas.
In many ways sand dune park is like the bike path that brings crime - like the bike path the park is a great amenity
but it does provide cover for violent criminals, the same way the bike path does.
Google bike paths and crime and you will see that all over the us and europe, bike paths lead to crime
March 19, 2008
Residents Blame Crime on Bike Path
LA's Transportation Committee met Tuesday and took public comment on CD11 Councilman Bill Rosendahl's motion to close the Ballona Creek Bike Path access gate located along Culver Drive.
MB Reality said, "Now, who's the smartest guy on the block? I know, not you."
Clearly, it isn't you! If you can't figure out how or what that %'age drop means, and clearly you cannot...then you get that award.
The jealousy in your post is so evident. And gosh, rent isn't due for another 7 days. Why the bitterness?
Speaking of smartest guys...
Our friend Warren Buffett speaks today:
Sat May 24, 7:30 AM ET
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday.
Why do we debate it on this blog? The facts and the experts are in alignment... RE prices are soft and the depth of the economic issues are yet to come..
Sold and Waiting to Buy, you're right: everyone in MB is going to loose their house and declare bankruptcy.
MB Watcher will not like this, and will probably take it down, but I have to say MB Reality is a MORON!!!!!! Put down the Daily Sleeze and go stand in the corner.
PROPAGANDA ALERT!!
Boy, you leave this blog for just a few hours and the COTC loons and propagandists reappear on this blog in full force.
For those of you new to this misbegotten blog, the COTC or Cult of the Clueless (esssentially bitter renters who missed the home price run-up) regularly try to make it sound as if home prices are collapsing here in Manhattan Beach. That makes them feel good and soothes their angst over having missed all that price appreciation while paying rent.
One of their chief propagandist/liars is MB Reality who, at 12:16 said prices have declined 25,8% y-o-y. WRONG!
Here is the median sales data ytd for Manhattan Beach compared to the same time period last year (and 2006 for good measure):
Median SFR Sale Price (Jan 1 - May 23)
2006 - $1,837,500
2007 - $1,816,000
2008 - $1,700,000 (-6.4%)
(The 2008 median SFR sale is represented by 1906 Flournoy, a Mrs MBC pick if I'm not mistaken)
Median Sale Price, All Sales (Jan 1 - May 23)
2006 - $1,640,000
2007 - $1,700,000
2008 - $1,585,000 (-6.8%)
All this is verifiable by anyone with access to a computer and the local MLS.
The COTC likes to latch on to a ludicrously small data set like one month's worth of sales (about 12-24 transactions) and extrapolate to all of Manhattan Beach. If you're a first time reader, don't be fooled by their cluelessness. If you're a COTC member here for your group therapy, just ignore the above facts (I know you will anyway).
Sold & Waiting to Buy says sales slowdown precedes a price drop by 6-8 months. Well, we've had a slowdown quite a bit longer than that locally (sales actually started to slow in the 4th quarter of 2006, with a spike up last Spring) and the price drop that has manifested itself so far in Manhattan Beach is, as noted above, about 7%, not the 15% nationwide figure quoted in Barrons.
By the way, Anon 2:57, you came up with the same 7% drop in median sale price that I did. Did you get your info off the MLS or from another source?
Also, you said, "MB is following an expected lag attributable to relative affluent areas." Do you have a source for that statement? I'm not disagreeing but I'd like to know if anyone has studied how much and to what degree affluent communities lag the overall real estate market. For example, CAR published a startling stat that shows statewide a 32% y-o-y drop in median home prices last month. Kinda makes our 7% drop seem tame by comparison.
Huggy (and all unbearable bulls) the data the Breeze cites is based on a minimum of 30 sales per month and is NOT one month's data you idiots, it takes into account year over year sales...granted, slower than most recent years, but we're still talking about a 12 month scenario. Get over it already, the jig is up.
I love the irrational defensive nature of the bulls around here though, the name calling is awesome, I love it! Let's me know I've struck the right nerve. Gosh, a lot of folks must be on pins and needles around here. I've never heard more insecure people. Man, I'd making a killing as a shrink around here!
Anyway, keep it up. I do enjoy it. I especially love the poster that called me a bitter renter. How can you be so sure?
Maybe I already own and I'm looking to buy more (like your upcoming short sale) so I can give my dog a decent place of his own. Maybe I'm a discount foreclosure specialist that can't wait to swoop in and go to work for the banks...my commissions around here on the short sale side are still more than I get working the cheaper neighborhoods of LA.
Regardless of my true identity, one thing is for certain...I am truly less bitter than you.
Have a fantastic holiday weekend all!
- MBR
MB Reality said - "Let's me know I've struck the right nerve."
Nice grammar. "Let's"? And you are calling bulls the idiots?
"Maybe" you already own? Uh, right. Of course you do. I was the one that called you a bitter renter. Trust me, I can just tell. If you truly owned (as you dream you do), you wouldn't post this stuff. Talk about idiotic. You can't even get your own story straight!!! No big deal. The world needs ditch diggers too.
PROPAGANDA ALERT!
MB Fantasy continues to post his disinformation about home prices locally. The truth, as reflected in the data posted by yours truly above (less than 7% drop in median home prices locally ytd) is verifiable (already verified by another commenter) and statistically more relevant than the tiny data set that Mr Fantasy is pinning his hopes on.
You are a bitter renter, MBR, leading a cheap and petty life between rent checks. I know it and you know it. Simple logic - if you owned, you wouldn't be cheering that your most valuable asset dropped 26% in value. The fact that you feel compelled to continue promulgating false and misleading propaganda like that proves what a loser you are in "reality." Fortunately, I'm here to correct your misinformation and will continue to do so, as much as it pains you and your cult who need to feel good about themselves after missing the real estate boom.
By the way, I'm providing this service in my free time since I know what a stickler your cult leader, MBW, is for "accuracy" on this blog (ha!).
By the way, in case anyone is wondering what MB Reality, the COTC's self-appointed statistician, is referring to, the Daily Breeze reported CAR's median sales figures for the month of April and compared them to the median for sales in April, 2007.
MB Reality, being clueless, said " the data the Breeze cites is based on a minimum of 30 sales per month and is NOT one month's data you idiots, it takes into account year over year sales..."
Now there's a real genius at work for you. The very first words in the DB article say "Home prices across the South Bay continued to slide in April..." Apparently, MB "Reality" is not very bright; he doesn't understand that what the article is saying is that if you compare the median for April's sales this year to the sales in the same month last year, the decrease in Manhattan Beach is 25.8% That's one month's sales - in this case April's sales - compared on a year over year basis. Comprendo MBR?
Reading for comprehension - always a challenge for the COTC loons.
The only loons on this site are the permabulls who fight tooth and nail to defend the depreciating asset over their heads tonight.
Regardless of how it's presented (in MBR's case maybe not quite perfect) but I think the point the poster is making is what has been very obvious to us all for months now. We have a slowing market that has become completely unpredictable to the downside. There's no hurry to buy, and it's driving people around here nuts.
"The only loons on this site are the permabulls who fight tooth and nail to defend the depreciating asset over their heads tonight. "
You are probably right. It is sort of like all the permabears who fight tooth and nail to try to convince themselves that home prices are depreciating so they can finaly afford one. Most don't realize that even with a 30% decrease in prices, they still can't afford here. Tough position to be in, I guess. I'd rather be a bull than a bear.
"Bitter renter" rhetoric still? Man this has become lame...
Anyone else notice that Huggy's numbers change everytime he posts?
Damn - I hate the sound of that beat box at sand dune park! It's not even 8am!!!
Huggy - AKA Math Challenged!
Add the 5% sales cost to any of these declines you post, so everyone knows that on average if you are selling right now you will lose about 12% from last years median.
I love how realtors try to tell you what % you gained or might lose without factoring their cut.
You have any mirrors in your home Huggy All Mighty? You should take a look at one and see how clueless YOU really are.
12:25 “Permabull,” that’s a very funny term. It reminds of an incident in 1979 after The Man Grappler was cancelled. Karl Hungus was asked to host The Muppet Show. Hungy loathed anything to do with puppets or children and was under tremendous pressure to take the gig. After considerable tussling with his agent at the time, Harry Gribbs, Hungy finally caved and hosted The Muppets. The show went well and the audience got to see a lighter, comical side of Hungy. The most memorable moment came when Hungy sang with The Muppets. The tune was a cleverly re-worded version of Abba’s disco hit “Dancing Queen.” To the Network brass’ astonishment, Hungy sang in a powerful, but melodic tenor: “I am the eviction king, you’re neck I’ll ring, if you don’t answer your doorbell ding.” NBC President Fred Silverman remarked at the time, “if I knew that bastard could sing like that, I would’ve never cancelled him.” For the moment, Hungy’s career was looking up. In fact, Elvis Presley’s former manager, Colonel Tom Parker, wanted to book Hungy at the Sands in Vegas for $25,000 a week. However, at The Muppet Show wrap party, fate would intervene with catastrophic consequences. While enjoying himself with the cast and crew of The Muppets, Hungy was approached by one of The Muppets’ puppeteers, Milo Phelps. Phelps, who stood six feet six and weighed in at 280, was generally regarded as the toughest puppeteer in Hollywood. Phelps was heard to say to Hungy “Hey Man Crappler, why don’t you try to throw me out of here.” With his Cognac still in hand, Hungy proceeded to administer a horrific beating. It took 23 people to pull Hungy off of him. Phelps spent the next six weeks recovering at Cedars, but he refused to press charges against Hungy, because of the sheer humiliation he would endure testifying in court. Phelps made a near full recovery, but if you look closely at Kermit the Frog’s body language in later episodes, he developed a strange spastic tic, which some say was a result of Hungy’s beating. Now that’s what I call a “Permabull. “
Just when you think the clueless renters in the COTC can't possibly get more clueless, you get a statement like 7:42 who says "Anyone else notice that Huggy's numbers change everytime he posts?"
That's because Huggy's numbers are year-to-date so, by definition, they change every time there's a new sale. Duh!
Then another COTC 'genius', 7:52, comes along and says everyone who has been quoting median sale prices is wrong - CAR, Daily Breeze, Case Shiller - because they are not including a 5% commission. Since you've never owned real estate, 7:52, I'll try to break this to you gently - real estate commissions are negotiable, they are not a 5% constant figure. In any transaction, you don't know what the commission is whereas sale price is a matter of public record.
But thanks for your astounding revelation that there are transaction costs associated with a real estate sale. Btw, you forgot about closing costs, but being a perma-renter, I guess you wouldn't know what those are.
All I can say is "Wow!" Hey, MBW, maybe you should start some on-line tutorial sessions for your clueless fan base so their comments can at least adopt a veneer of intellect.
MB Reality- Cluless, clueless, clueless. And if you read in the LA Times this morning you would see that the median price in Hermosa went up 31.8% on just 8 sales. So if you believe MB Reality and the Hermosa Stat that prices are down 20% in MB and up 31% in HB, you really are clueless, and will miss the next run-up.
COTC- Let's take a step back here and think about what just happened. Huggy pointed out there were multiple offers on a short sale at 3412 Pacific. List price was $1,199k. It sold for $1,491k in 1/07, not sure how it did for that price. But, regardless it then sold for $1,199k according to MBW's spreadsheets. So, I would have to say everyone on here would have to agree that the 19.6% drop on that house would have to represent an anomaly, with maybe more anomalies to come. So how in the world can the COTC think that MB prices overall have declined by 20%? Let them keep thinking as they will truly miss when prices actually begin to start rising again. That is probably how they missed it the first time in 1996.
PROPAGANDA ALERT!!!
Once again, Huggy is changing his numbers/story in response to every poster, getting defensive, name-calling, pawning off opinion as fact, and chastising every data set that he didn't derive from the realtor-sponsored and controlled MLS (when it suits his agenda).
LOL... None of the renters on here sound 1/10th as bitter as Huggy.
p.s. Propaganda Alert is getting so old... As if someone citing the Daily Breeze's numbers instead of Huggy's ever changing internal data is spreading propaganda. Seems like the other way around.
p.p.s. You know the bulls are feeling stupid/wrong when they turn into the grammar police.
p.p.p.s. Anyone have the over/under on how long Huggy takes to respond? I say under 20 minutes - his life seems pretty empty based on his post volume, frequency, and content.
p.p.p.p.s. You buy the DQ numbers yet?
LOL
p.p.p.p.s. My rent is due in six days.
p.p.p.p.p.s. I wish I would have studied harder in school so I could have gotten a better job and earned some real cash.
Anon 8:43, I have to take issue with your recollection of what happened at The Muppet Show wrap party. Fact is it was a minor incident that, over time, has taken on a life much larger than its reality.
Yes, Milo got a little out of hand. When I learned he was another clueless deadbeat renter who hated homeowners and had a penchant for spouting off about home prices, a subject far beyond his area of expertise, I (half) jokingly suggested we compare 1099’s. That’s when he uttered the line quoted in your comment. However, I did not thrash Milo, as indicated in your recounting; I merely put a hand on his chest and gave him a shove. He injured himself when he tripped over a muppet. I think his feet got tangled in the hand opening at Miss Piggy’s ‘nether’ region. Who could have seen that coming?
Little known fact – they served good cognac at the Muppet wrap parties; Louis XIII by Remy Martin, as I recall.
Your pal, Karl "Rent's Due, Loser!" Hungus.
hi 10am, 9:55/57 here.
p.p.p.p.p.p.s. I own in the trees, just hate Huggy's attitude.
p.p.p.p.p.p.p.s. $10k says I make more money than you. And I'm sure a number of the people on here that actually rent could say the same thing. SP Syndrome in full effect, huh 10am?
Just because I think Huggy/the bulls have a way worse attitude than the bears, doesn't mean I sway one way or the other.
10:27 said, I own in the trees, just hate Huggy's attitude.
p.p.p.p.p.p.p.p.p (I've lost count) s: Suuuuuuuuuuure you do. At least that statement is half correct. Now time to wake up and get that first whiff of renter's reality, loser. You might start by taking a glance at your own 1099, ooops, excuse me, your own W-2.
Amidst all this, record price paid for non-strand, south end tear down (off mls transaction).
The subject transaction, like other off mls deals will never figure in to the Daily Sleeze/cotc comps (remember, the paper is written at 6th grade livel so cotc can understand it).
I have a suggestion. Since the Oak Avenue properties are selling at such bargin prices, why don't the cotc's all buy on Oak and start a cotc collective.
With the COTC's meager finances, they'll all be living in one house. I'm going to suggest 1400 Oak as the COTC's version of Delta house. Modest place now but if they pool their $$, it could become the Clueless Compound with Mookie as Flounder, "eyeglass boy" as Hoover, MB Reality as Otter ... the possibilities are limitless.
Think about it this way, if the MB RE market is down 10% on average, and we WERE running at plus 20%, that is a 30% market momentum swing - which is huge.
And economic factors say it will NOT be getting better of leveling out soon.
10:27am - $10k you make more than I do? That's mature. How the hell are you going to prove that? What a loser. Of course you do. Fantasyland is 30 miles east of here.
Sold and Waiting to Buy- So which angle are you taking here. The one where you quoted a Barron's article where luxury homes were down 15% or your 10% on average quote. Where did you get 10%? Just a guess? Any real facts? I sold recently and said that my house was down about 7-8% from peak, to which good ol Mookie "Bud Fox" attempted to slam me. But it was a real fact. Now you say we were running at a 20% clip> FYI- That was over 4 years ago. The 20% clip has been gone for quite sometime. Please, please help me understand your angle, because it is all over the place.
If you sold, then when did you sell and where? Are you like Bud Fox who sold his home flat in Rye and is now attempting to hopelessly curtail the market in MB. The market here will do what it does regardless of how many posts happen here. But keep thinking you are getting a 30% momentum swing as you call it. You and Bud can go run some technical analysis at the Beach Hut in El Porto together since it is within walking distance of your homes. Do you really think Sam Zell runs technical analysis when he decides to buy and sell real estate. I bet there were plenty of Blackstone guys running there technical analysis.
1:51p
My point is plain and simple, the MB Market is down and will go lower (experts, data and facts show this) to think otherwise is foolish. To state how far down is only a guess...but saying it is down and will continue to soften is based on fact.
Ha. Yes, I own in the trees. Huggy, you want to come by for a beer? Actually, that would require you stepping away from your computer. Then you wouldn't be able to troll these boards all day looking for bearish posts to rebut. Maybe another time.
Either way, there is a huge distinction between disagreeing with a viewpoint and disagreeing with how that viewpoint is communicated. Huggy, I agree with a lot of what you say, I just think the delivery of your message is childish, screams of insecurity, and is downright rude.
Truthfully, getting back to the crux, I couldn't care less what the market does over the next few years. I bought my home in 2002 for consumption, not as an investment - so the fluctuations aren't going to bother me or my family. We have the house we've always wanted (and a ton of equity to boot). That's more important that it's current value to me.
Actually, scratch that. Maybe I do care if it goes up or down. Maybe if it goes down a bit, a new wave of nice, responsible residents who feel fortunate rather than entitled to be in MB will crop up. Might be a nice change of pace from some of the d-bags that post on here. Thank goodness I have the neighbors I currently have.
p.s. 1:08 - Now you are talking about maturity? Ummmmmmmmm... Glass house much? Didn't you start this nonsense by blindly assuming I was a renter and insulting my perceived education and employment situation? Real mature, bud.
p.p.s. Huggy, I just plain don't believe you are successful. "I had a banner year in 2007?" Sure you did, pal. You're lucky you live in MB; lucky for you your parents left you their house, because based on your unsuccessful track record and meager earnings, you definitely didn't get here on your own... I straight up don't believe you are successful, nor do I believe you even live her.
See what I did there? It was textbook Huggy 101. Make baseless, unsubstatiated, insulting claims about someone you disagree with. My post script has just as much credence as you challenging the fact that I own in the trees.
Grow up, Huggy. Just grow up. Your insight had so much more credibility before you riddled every post with insults and disrespectful rhetoric.
The "about 7%" drop YTD in MB is also consistent with DQ data.
We have contiguous monthly data from 01/88 to 03/08 for ALL sales in MB, SFR AND TH/Condo.
Interpolating by a weighted mean of medians as published in the LA Times for April suggests that the YTD drop in MB for the first 4 months of 2008 with a total of 93 sales is a drop of 7.4% YTD relative to 2007.
That affluent areas are associated with a lag in price drops is self evident -- and may well have been academically studied.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2748.html
Here are a couple of DQ charts to drive the point home:
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/CA-City-Charts/ZIPCAR07.aspx
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Annual-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT07.aspx
What becomes clear with a cursory glance at these tables is that the areas where drops have already occurred are relatively less well off.
Now, there is definitive evidence for drops arriving in our local neighborhood and other affluent areas as recently documented in the LA Times.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes20-2008may20,0,4081478.story
As is true of most large dynamical systems, one can expect that the rate of the drop will accelerate in the months to come -- that exponential decline phase has yet to arrive in MB. The regional decline has been at a clip not witnessed in local housing history. I cannot think of a single reason (without invoking the fanciful) for why prices will not continue to drop. (Recall, the median home price to median household income in MB is in the range of 13-14 (it was closer to 7.5 at the peak of the last cycle in 1990); credit availability remains sharply restricted, on the heels of the largest credit binge in American history; the economy is in a deepening recession; inflation is rising rapidly... interest rates may well follow... local layoffs recently announced by Boeing...)
To explore this forthcoming decline, there is a startling disconnect worth paying attention to in the DQ dataset during the upswing centered on January 2004, which will likely be mirrored in some fashion on the way down.
Trailing annualized nominal medians for the previous 12 months (02/03 to 01/04) was $1,040,896.
A year later, in 01/05, the trailing 12 month mean of medians was $1,351,146. This translates to disjunction in median home prices of 30% during that year.
What's really startling is how quickly that shift in the median home price occurred in MB in a matter of 2 months!
The mean of median prices for 12/03 and 01/04 (total of 113 sales) was $1,040,000.
The mean of median prices for 02/04 and 03/04 (total of 112 sales) was $1,367,250.
This shift of 31% is consistent with the annualized means of medians mentioned above.
Before anyone pounces with the usual tirade about "cherry-picking" data, this huge shift has a SD worth careful consideration -- for this is a true breakpoint/shift.
SD for 02/03 to 01/04 is $72834 and for 02/04 to 01/05 is $78011. Thus, this difference of $327,250 is 4 SD from the mean of these numbers -- it is a VERY significant change. Odds are, there is mirroring data on the MLS which speaks to this dramatic pattern.
So, the real question this raises, is what enabled this rapid increase in median prices in MB, practically overnight in 01/04?
It should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following the mortgage debacle that this was a time associated with further easing of credit restrictions and the creation of new "products" to "enable consumers" to buy the home of their "dreams" -- the funding of liar loans, Alt-As and pay-option arm loans with little or no down payment to get homeowners into homes... to feed the CDO frenzy, which in turn fed the housing frenzy!
The current constriction in sales is likely related to a retrenching of lending standards to historically normative levels of risk attribution by lenders, who can all smell the same downslope dynamic ahead -- it is not surprising to learn that lenders now want 20-30% down -- to hedge their downside risk as the market slides downward.
Some say "pessimistic"? You bet! But also realistic, for there is precious little to be optimistic about in the real estate scene of late.
What goes up, must come down!
Nicollo Machiavelli:
Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results.
3:29 You are correct Huggy, caused all the trouble in the economy and the real estate rundown. Your anger at him is well placed. He has massive power and he rode a tank with a general's rank while the blitzkreig raged. After all, he's just you and me, dummy.
Marin County is probably a good analog for MB. They are almost 30%off the peak...we should be there soon.
Yes, Marin is a perfect analogy to MB. Have you ever been to Marin or Mill Valley? It is nothing like MB. We're a beach town and Marin is, essentially, canyon county. It's much closer to Topanga and the hills of Malbu than MB, but you wouldn't know since you've never ventured any farther than Playa or Redondo.
Huggy - just responding to your comment that MB's 7% drop is tame in comparison to the 32% statewide drop. When put into dollars, that doesn't look so tame to me. For example, let's say median price of home in MB is $2 million and median statewide is $300k (those numbers are total guesses/I welcome you to correct me as I don't have the time or resources to look the real numbers up). A 32% drop to the stockton homeowner is only $96k. The manhattan homeowner loses 140k on the 7% drop. Bottom line - a small % drop here hurts as much or more than a large % drop in most places. This dollar for dollar comparison will get really ugly for MB homeowners if the market drops 15% or more.
Huggy can only post when his mom is asleep or making him meat loaf.
"MOM - MEAT LOAF!!!"
I've crashed a few funerals with Huggy and his Mom's meat loaf is pretty good.
Anon 5:26..I was speaking about demographics re: Marin vs MB, not geographics. High end educated professionals looking for good schools close to the center of the city. Your precious beach won't save you pal. The LA times has you down 20% already. No reason to be so touchy, unless of course you are not diversified, and taking it in the shorts due to the downturn.
6:14 Our $5m MB house is payed for and it is our third house and yes, I'm old and rather enjoy trifling with intelligent young men such as yourself. In the meantime, I'll wait to the market gets worse and then I'll buy your block and then I'll raise your rent.
Don't care what you own or how old you are pops, just looking for an intelligent counterpoint which you are apparently incapable of providing. I would think with age one would become more sure of one's self and have less of a need to compare your d*ck size with everyone else. Think about what is important in the short time you have left.
Random ruminations and bits o’ wisdom from Huggy:
MB Reality, at 10:53 said the data the Breeze cites is based on a minimum of 30 sales per month and is NOT one month's data you idiots, it takes into account year over year sales.
The Daily Breeze article was quoting California Assn of Realtor median sales stats for home sales in the month of April compared to the median for sales in the same month last year (hence the term “year-over-year”). Apparently, MBR doesn’t know what ‘year-over-year’ means. Sorry, MBR, but I’m still chuckling over that one.
MB Reality also said Maybe I already own and I'm looking to buy more (like your upcoming short sale) so I can give my dog a decent place of his own.
Back on earth, I’m guessing that MBR’s dog is living larger than him.
Anon 12:25 said We have a slowing market that has become completely unpredictable to the downside. There's no hurry to buy, and it's driving people around here nuts.
In your case, Anon 12:25, it appears to be a very short drive (in fact, the car may already be in park). Completely unpredictable to the downside? Only to the COTC loons who are in denial that our median sale price in Manhattan Beach is off only 7% year-over-year (uh oh, now I’ve confused MB Reality).
9:55 said: Once again, Huggy is changing his numbers/story in response to every poster, getting defensive, name-calling, pawning off opinion as fact, and chastising every data set that he didn't derive from the realtor-sponsored and controlled MLS (when it suits his agenda).
As I tried explaining to another COTC loon, the numbers have to change if you’re looking at sales year-to-date. By definition. So MBR doesn’t understand what year-over-year means and 9:55 doesn’t understand what year-to-date means. Is it the word ‘year’ that confuses the COTC? Do any of you own a calendar?
I love the fact that 9:55 is implying the data on the “realtor-sponsored and controlled MLS” is somehow inaccurate (even though all the sales are public knowledge) but the stats in the Daily Breeze article, which are also provided by realtors, are accurate. They’re both accurate, doofus. Accuracy is not the issue; statistical significance (or, in the case of one month’s sales, insignificance) is the issue.
Sold and waiting to buy said: Think about it this way, if the MB RE market is down 10% on average, and we WERE running at plus 20%, that is a 30% market momentum swing - which is huge.
We haven’t seen 20% appreciation for several years now – ooops, there’s that COTC problem with the word ‘year’ again.
3:29 said Huggy, I agree with a lot of what you say, I just think the delivery of your message is childish, screams of insecurity, and is downright rude.
Aren’t you 9:55, quoted above? You have a funny way of expressing your agreement. And didn’t you also say that a turnover in MB homeowners would be a “nice change of pace from some of the d-bags that post on here” So, therefore, I’m to conclude that calling others “d-bags” is not childish, does not scream of insecurity and is not downright rude. Just want to be clear on your rather obtuse rules of etiquette.
3:55 aka “eyeglass boy”, welcome back. Couldn’t quite make it all the way through your long-winded exposition; I felt myself slipping into a coma about half way through. Glad you confirmed the 7% year-over-year (damn, gotta stop using terms with the word ‘year’ in it for the COTC’s benefit) price drop in Manhattan Beach but I think that number will narrow rather than widen by the end of the year due to a number of high-end sales that will be closing soon.
Still, had to laugh because I asked you for your source that “MB is following an expected lag attributable to relative affluent areas” and your response was “it’s self-evident.” That's good, I think I’ll start using that rationale in the future. Let’s see, the COTC knows nothing about real estate and can barely even comprehend the articles in the Daily Breeze. How do I know? It’s self-evident. I like it!
So what I'm taking away from this board is that if you are a RE bull right now it's cool for you to call people (your neighbors) bitter, poor, uneducated, etc. And if you're a bear on the market it's cool to call your neighbors a jaackass, uptight, snobby, etc. right?
Okay then, I just wanted to be sure this wasn't the neighborhood for me and my family. We're actually looking to pitch our tent somewhere were people are actually nice to each other.
Thanks and good luck to all!
3:55- I remember those times. We bought a house in Oct 2003 and sold in July 2004 at a 30% appreciation rate. Those times were crazy. People were afraid about interest rates and wanted to be in any house. Should have forecasted things to come as we did not bail out of our last house in MB until early 2008 losing about 8% from 2005, but still gaining about 25% from 2003 levels. Oh, those were the days.
9:24 Try not to personalize something that is essentially an anonymous form of online road rage. Having lived in a variety of communities around LA, I can assure you that MB is a generally lovely place with generally very nice people. If you really want to see some insufferable individuals, go shopping at the Gelson's in the Palisades. Even the clerks speak with condescending entitlement. I agree with that poster that said MB is paradise. Let's all try to be a little kinder today in respect to those who've sacrificed so much for us. Peace.
MBWatcher, I have a suggestion. Can you either ask Huggy to write his own blog or give him his very own thread? Anyone who wants to digitally converse with him can do so there, thereby freeing up the comments section of your blog (nice blog by the way) for comments that actually pertain to the post.
Also, I may speak for quite a few of us who are tired of reading his sophomoric taunts and insults over and over. And this from a successful real estate salesperson?
Random musings from the blog author...
Beautiful morn, shaping up to be a great holiday. Out at the pier after breakfast, we saw crew teams racing, triathletes in training, a seal snacking and a dad teaching a boy of about 5 yrs. to surf.
Back home, the comments here are full of venom and namecalling. (Or were before the cleaver.) Y'all need to shake it off and get out. Please.
And 10:19, I've had various ideas for Huggy, including a guest column, but he's wussed out on even contacting me. Should'v